This is the twelfth edition of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report. It assesses the gap between estimated future global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions if countries implement their climate mitigation pledges and the global emission levels from least-cost pathways that are aligned with achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” has become known as the ‘emissions gap’. The report also examines further areas that are highly relevant for bridging the gap: updated NDCs and Net...

Financial institutions' current investments in gas reflect an underestimation of climate risks, including the extent to which gas value chain investments pose a threat to achieving 1.5°C. This report surveys these risks, outlining the need for much tighter restrictions on lending for all parts of the gas value chain. Key Findings: Rapid and far-reaching decarbonisation of the energy system is essential to achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Of particular importance is the “critical decade” between 2020 and 2030, where emissions need to fall 7.6% every year. Committed emissions...

This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 26 major emitting countries and regions up to 2030 under currently implemented policies. The report shows that emissions are projected to remain above 2005 levels in most countries but concludes that 16 out of the 26 countries and regions analysed are on track or close to achieve the NDC targets they have previously set for themselves. Eight are on track to also meet their...

In this report, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) explores several sets of scenarios for the evolution of the passenger vehicle stock in China, in order to inform on emission reduction and electricity demand implications. Summary: China is currently the global leader in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales annually, a position it has held since 2015 when it surpassed the US. The one positive policy priority in China’s COVID-19 recovery focused on transitioning the transport sector towards development of public transport systems and electrified transport. New energy vehicles (NEVs), which...

This study investigates the techno-economic potential of green hydrogen production in Mongolia, and its application in three hard-to-abate end-use sectors - namely heavy-duty transport in the mining sector, public transportation in Ulaanbaatar, and decentralised space heating and cooking. Based on the results, the GHG emission reduction potential is estimated, followed by an analysis on potential policy options for the introduction of green hydrogen in the Mongolian context. Main findings: Despite Mongolia’s rich renewable energy resources, some hard-to-abate sectors are technically...

The scoping study aims to support Kenya Power’s Decarbonise the Energy Mix Initiative that is included in the company’s Strategic Plan 2018-2023 by analysing potential challenges associated with power sector decarbonisation and suitable intervention options to overcome these challenges. Main findings: Kenya has one of the lowest carbon-intensive power systems in the region, mainly due to the high share of dispatchable renewable sources (primarily geothermal and hydro). Together with its abundance of renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, this is one of the greatest assets to...

This study shows how transformative change can bring about sustainable development, prevent climate change from spiralling out of control and address the unavoidable consequences of climate change in a development-friendly manner. Main findings: In view of the multiple crises facing the world, unprecedented efforts are required to achieve resilient, climate-compatible and sustainable development on a global scale. Avoiding unmanageable climate change and managing its unavoidable impacts requires ambitious and coherent action towards the objectives of the Paris Agreement. In this context, the...

This article published in "Nature Climate Change" analyses the recent wave of national net zero targets showing that there is significant momentum which could bring the temperature limit of the Paris Agreement within reach. Summary: A total of 131 countries are discussing, have announced, or have adopted net zero targets, covering 72% of global emissions. National net zero emission targets could, if fully implemented, substantially lower projected temperature increase compared to currently implemented policies (2.9–3.2 °C) or pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement (2.4–2.9 °C). While being a...

In these briefings, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) introduces its new rating methodology, which now rates more elements than before – mitigation targets in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), policies and action, and climate finance. We’ve also added a methodology for assessing net zero targets. These briefings provides an overview of the development in climate action over the last year and illustrates the new CAT assessment of the countries we analyse, based on our updated method. Summary Code red: The new IPCC report on climate science has reinforced the absolute urgency of closing...

International environmental law principles are used to assess indicators of fair share emissions reductions and narrow the range of what is considered a fair share for individual countries. Main Findings: This article tests fairness justifications offered in 168 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the 2015 Paris Agreement against the touchstone of principles of international environmental law. It finds that while many NDCs refer to elements and indicators that are backed by principles of international law in determining fair shares (sustainable development, special circumstances...

The National Cooling Action Plan (NCAP) shall serve as input to Grenada’s NDC process, by providing quantitative and qualitative analyses on mitigation actions related to space cooling in buildings. Main findings: The NCAP aims to assist Grenada in the achievement of the country’s commitments under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol and the Paris Agreement, and to contribute to the accomplishment of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. At present, buildings are responsible for 54% of total GHG emissions in Grenada and the refrigeration and air conditioning (RAC) sector accounts...

The SCREEN tool and the underlying COVID-19 recovery framework aim to help policymakers to identify and analyse green recovery measures that can effectively cater to the distinct recovery needs and development priorities of developing countries. Main findings: Climate action and COVID-19 recovery in developing countries Since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, multiple organisations have published green recovery frameworks, building on a growing body of research evaluating the effectiveness of different policy archetypes. Green recovery frameworks, and their respective assessment criteria, are...

Natalie Pelekh's work includes assessing mitigation actions in the agricultural sector, tracking non-state action, and evaluating national climate policies as part of the Climate Action Tracker team. Prior to joining NewClimate Institute, Natalie was a sustainability consulting intern at a circular economy consultancy. Her work included quantifying the material flows and greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential in European food systems and helping develop a city’s climate action plan. She holds a BSc in Environmental Sustainability from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where...

Jamie Wong works on issues related to climate and development policy, co-benefits of climate action, just transitions, and tracking international climate action. He is part of the Climate Action Tracker team, evaluating national climate change efforts and assessing the impact potential of accelerated sectoral climate action. Prior to joining NewClimate Institute, he worked with Sustainability and Resilience (su-re.co) in Indonesia to transition rural farming communities from wood to biogas cookstoves. Jamie holds a B.Eng in Chemical Engineering with Management from the University of Edinburgh...

This study provides new and additional insights on the specific link between residential cooking solutions, climate change, health impacts and associated sustainable development objectives in Kenya. It builds on the 2019 National Cooking Sector Study and uses scenario modelling to present different possible development pathways for the Kenyan residential cooking sector, estimating their respective impact on GHG emissions and human health, and additional analysis on fuel use, energy demand and fuel expenditure as well as deforestation. Main findings: Scenarios Based on five cooking sector...

As part of the Paris Agreement, countries are mandated to update and enhance their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years — increasing their ambition with every cycle. The first round of NDCs were submitted starting in 2015 as intended nationally determined contributions and countries have submitted or are finalizing their updates for the new cycle in 2020/2021. The purpose of this report was to develop a methodology to systematically assess the design of NDCs and to apply it to 20 NDCs. Main findings: While there are several tools that analyze NDCs, they are comprehensive...