This paper assesses whether and how national and multinational credit purchase facilities have supported Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects that are vulnerable to the risk of discontinuing GHG abatement. Improving the understanding of the impact that the credit purchase facilities have had in supporting the continuation of emission reductions for vulnerable CDM projects can inform the available options for their further support. Key findings: Although the maximum potential CER supply from existing CDM projects in the 2013–2020 period is 4.65 billion CERs, we estimated that the...

Nearly all the world’s governments have prepared and submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), setting out their climate pledges under the 2015 Paris Agreement. These NDCs are to be regularly updated, and many countries are expected to submit a new NDC in 2020. While several studies have assessed the content and potential impacts of the NDCs, this article focusses on the preparatory process and asks the question: under what conditions can countries be expected to develop NDCs that are sufficiently ambitious to contribute to fulfilling the Paris Agreement goals? For some...

This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 25 major emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The report concludes that 12 out of the 25 countries and regions analysed are not on track to achieve the NDC targets they have set for themselves. This report updates the 2018 report, and...

In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker presents the global temperature update and shares key insights from the updated assessments. Under current pledges, the world will warm by 2.8°C by the end of the century, close to twice the limit they agreed in Paris. Governments are even further from the Paris temperature limit in terms of their real-world action, which would see the temperature rise by 3°C. An ‘optimistic’ take on real-world action including additional action that governments are planning still only limits warming to 2.8°C. Warming estimates have fallen by 0.1-0.2°C compared to...

Developed by NewClimate Institute, Germanwatch and CAN , the index ties in with the global Climate Change Performance Index by Germanwatch, a rating of the 58 largest emitters of GHG emissions globally that has been published annually since 2006. Foreword: Informing the process of raising climate ambition Published annually since 2005, the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) is an independent monitoring tool for tracking countries’ climate protection performance. It aims to enhance transparency in international climate politics and enables comparison of climate protection efforts and...

The NDC Update Report tracks the progress on the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement. The theme of this report is the role of long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LTSs) in achieving the Paris Agreement goal. This report argues for the importance of developing long-term (sector) strategies to determine the highest possible ambition for the coming NDC update (until 2030) and to signal a clear path for future NDC ambition raising (towards net-zero in 2050). Governments can use the NDC update to signal that indeed the highest...

This report shows the potential distribution of the emissions reduction efforts between different Parties based on different approaches and presents an in-depth assessment of the circumstances influencing the (over-) achievement of the currently suggested emissions reduction goals. The analysis focuses on the following countries: Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Japan and the United States. Main findings: Keeping global warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, as stipulated in the Paris Agreement, requires accelerated efforts to reduce...

This report shows national GHG emissions reductions for 2030 and 2050 that are consistent with the Paris Agreements’ long-term temperature goal, both based on fairness and cost-effectiveness approaches. The range of fair shares was derived from an evaluation of a broad spectrum of fairness-based approaches by the Climate Action Tracker. The cost-effective reduction shares are based on recent marginal abatement cost curves, which were used to derive globally cost-effective national pathways. Main findings: In the Paris Agreement, which came into force in November 2016, the Parties to the United...

This summary report creates a framework to evaluate if a GST is successful and formulates recommendations for the design of the GST process. Please note that this is the executive summary of the full report that was published in advance to already feed into the negotiations at COP25. The main document will be provided subsequently. Key findings: The Paris Agreement combines collective goals with individual countries’ contributions. This hybrid approach does not guarantee that the individual contributions add up to what is required to meet the collective goals. The Paris Agreement therefore...

The independent Global Stocktake (iGST) seeks to increase the accuracy, transparency, accountability, and relevance of the official Global Stocktake benchmarking process by bringing together independent researchers and advocates. In this paper, build on previous work, we aim to identify knowledge gaps as well as potential areas of focus for a successful GST to take place. Executive summary: The Paris Agreement includes a cycle of ambition. Each five years, starting in 2023, a Global Stocktake (GST) analyses the global situation and provides information for countries to prepare updated...

A growing number of countries have started to set longer-term climate targets and develop decarbonisation strategies in addition to their shorter-term commitments under the Paris Agreement. Depending on the country, offsets in the form of emission reductions or emission removals from abroad play various roles in how countries sketch out future planning. In the context of constantly ratcheted up ambition of national climate efforts under the Paris Agreement however, the role that such offsets can play requires a shift from the current practice of offsetting continued emissions trends to rapidly...

This is the tenth edition of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report. It provides the latest assessment of scientific studies on current and estimated future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and compares these with the emission levels permissible for the world to progress on a least-cost pathway to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” has become known as the ‘emissions gap’. NewClimate Institute staff ( Takeshi Kuramochi , Frederic Hans , Niklas Höhne , Maria Jose de Villafranca...

This report synthesises available analyses on the role and potential of mini-grids in Kenya and explores how this technology can help the country attain its goal of universal electrification by 2022 and also contribute to the achievement of other related development objectives. Executive summary: Even with the global electrification rate rising from 83% in 2010 to 89% in 2017, about 573 million people still lack adequate access to electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 calls for action to “ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern...

This study aims at supporting decision making in the electricity sector in Kenya by comparing geothermal and coal as two main power generation technologies, and the impact of developing these technologies on generation costs, affordability of electricity, and overall flexibility and reliability of electricity supply. Executive summary: Kenya is one of the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, with high anticipated economic growth rates and ambitious flagship infrastructure projects. However, recent electricity demand forecasts were considerably decreased. Both in the scenarios of...

The International Civil Aviation Organisation is in the process of finalising the design of a scheme – the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) – to address carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation. In this discussion paper we estimate the potential supply of carbon offset credits to meet demand from international aviation under CORSIA under a number of different scenarios which include different types of restrictions imposed on the eligibility of offset credits. Our analysis considers supply from the four largest offsetting programmes: the...

This report explores how various political and financial measures could help to "de-risk" renewables investment using onshore wind investments in Serbia and Greece as case examples. Introduction: The financing costs for renewable energies in Southeast Europe have been significantly higher than for conventional power plants. Additionally, high risk premiums hamper the expansion of wind and solar power plants in the region. This study shows which political and financial de-risking measures can reduce costs of renewable energy projects in South East Europe. Most South East European countries rely...