A “transformation seismograph” can give an early warning signal with small perturbations at the beginning, later some elements of the system start shaking, later strong vibrations occur in all areas of the system until tipping or transformation point (point of no return) is reached. In this discussion paper we explores this concept to detect and measure the transformation to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Abstract: This discussion paper sketches the idea of a “transformation seismograph” to detect the signs and measure the speed and magnitude of transformation to net-zero greenhouse gas...

In this edition of our annual NDC Survey we once again find optimism and confidence about progress made on Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) planning and implementation. Based on responses from 97 policy makers and experts across 92 countries, we discuss how updated NDCs show progress, how they are linked to long term strategies, and which persistent challenges remain. Our survey findings confirm that we have come a long way since the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, we cannot ignore the fact that progress is too slow, pledges are insufficient, and action is not convincing: not on...

In this Climate Policy publication, we show that the number and coverage of climate change mitigation policies have increased in the past twenty years, but important policy adoption gaps remain. Despite this increase, slow progress towards reducing global emissions and meeting the collective Paris climate goals calls for more comprehensive climate change mitigation policies. Filling policy adoption gaps presents a concrete strategy to improve sectoral, national and global climate policy. Main findings: The number and coverage of climate change mitigation policies have increased in the past...

This report by NewClimate Institute, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and FTSE Russell tracks climate mitigation efforts in 30 countries and regions. Our analysis shows that emissions trends remain far from the goals of the Paris Agreement in the period post-2020. Emissions in the 30 economies as a group are projected to increase on average by approximately 0.4% per year between 2021 and 2030. However, almost two thirds of the countries analysed will accelerate their efforts in the 2020s. Sectors remain a key entry point to accelerate emissions reductions in the...

Combatting the climate crisis requires us to rapidly transform the systems that propel our economy, including power generation, buildings, industry, transport, land use, and agriculture—as well as the immediate scale-up of technological carbon removal. But by how much? And how can decision-makers unlock the transformational change that is required? The State of Climate Action 2021 identifies 40 indicators across key sectors that must transform to address the climate crisis, and assesses how current trends will impact how much work remains to be done by 2030 and 2050 to deliver a zero-carbon...

This is the twelfth edition of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report. It assesses the gap between estimated future global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions if countries implement their climate mitigation pledges and the global emission levels from least-cost pathways that are aligned with achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” has become known as the ‘emissions gap’. The report also examines further areas that are highly relevant for bridging the gap: updated NDCs and Net...

This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 26 major emitting countries and regions up to 2030 under currently implemented policies. The report shows that emissions are projected to remain above 2005 levels in most countries but concludes that 16 out of the 26 countries and regions analysed are on track or close to achieve the NDC targets they have previously set for themselves. Eight are on track to also meet their...

In this report, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) explores several sets of scenarios for the evolution of the passenger vehicle stock in China, in order to inform on emission reduction and electricity demand implications. Summary: China is currently the global leader in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales annually, a position it has held since 2015 when it surpassed the US. The one positive policy priority in China’s COVID-19 recovery focused on transitioning the transport sector towards development of public transport systems and electrified transport. New energy vehicles (NEVs), which...

This article published in "Nature Climate Change" analyses the recent wave of national net zero targets showing that there is significant momentum which could bring the temperature limit of the Paris Agreement within reach. Summary: A total of 131 countries are discussing, have announced, or have adopted net zero targets, covering 72% of global emissions. National net zero emission targets could, if fully implemented, substantially lower projected temperature increase compared to currently implemented policies (2.9–3.2 °C) or pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement (2.4–2.9 °C). While being a...

In these briefings, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) introduces its new rating methodology, which now rates more elements than before – mitigation targets in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), policies and action, and climate finance. We’ve also added a methodology for assessing net zero targets. These briefings provides an overview of the development in climate action over the last year and illustrates the new CAT assessment of the countries we analyse, based on our updated method. Summary Code red: The new IPCC report on climate science has reinforced the absolute urgency of closing...

International environmental law principles are used to assess indicators of fair share emissions reductions and narrow the range of what is considered a fair share for individual countries. Main Findings: This article tests fairness justifications offered in 168 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the 2015 Paris Agreement against the touchstone of principles of international environmental law. It finds that while many NDCs refer to elements and indicators that are backed by principles of international law in determining fair shares (sustainable development, special circumstances...

As part of the Paris Agreement, countries are mandated to update and enhance their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years — increasing their ambition with every cycle. The first round of NDCs were submitted starting in 2015 as intended nationally determined contributions and countries have submitted or are finalizing their updates for the new cycle in 2020/2021. The purpose of this report was to develop a methodology to systematically assess the design of NDCs and to apply it to 20 NDCs. Main findings: While there are several tools that analyze NDCs, they are comprehensive...

This report is the third and the latest edition of the series since 2018 that take stock of climate action by cities, regions and businesses and their global aggregate impact on greenhouse gas emissions. The 2021 edition focuses on the progress of non-state and subnational actors toward their emissions reduction targets. Main findings: In this report, we focus on subnational and non-state action in ten major emitting economies: Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union (EU-27) plus the United Kingdom (UK), India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, and the United States (US). We find that...

This study published in the "Environmental Science & Policy" journal assesses if nine key non-G20 countries meet 2030 GHG targets with existing policies. Main Findings: This study compares greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections in 2030 under current policies and those under 2030 mitigation targets for nine key non-G20 countries, that collectively account for about 5 % of global total emissions today. These include the four largest non-G20 fossil CO 2 emitting Parties to the UN climate convention pre-Paris Agreement (Iran, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine) and one of the largest land-use...

The Paris Agreement established a Global Stocktake process as a key safeguard mechanism to facilitate enhancement of the NDCs toward meeting the collective goals of the Agreement. This paper examines the questions of what an effective Global Stocktake process would look like, and what information and data are needed to support it. Main findings: We identify four functions that an effective Global Stocktake should fulfil; acting as a pacemaker of policy processes, ensuring accountability of countries actions, driving enhanced ambition in subsequent NDC cycles, and providing guidance and signal...

In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) estimates global warming by 2100 to be at an all-time low of 2.4°C. Due to recent climate action announcements at President Biden’s Leaders Summit on Climate, together with those announced since September 2020, have improved the CAT’s global warming estimate by 0.2°C. This emissions gap needs to be closed with further NDC target updates this year and targets have yet to be supported by ambitious policies. Leaders’ Summit on Climate creates new momentum on climate action Climate action announcements at US President Biden’s Leaders Summit on...

This report discusses inputs for countries to set their mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement, so that those targets are in line with long-term temperature limit. It reconciles different approaches and suggests closing the disparity of the results from the equity and cost-effectiveness approaches through international support. Further, it analyses spill-over effect of domestic action and provides inputs to the discussion around the long-term mitigation goal of the European Union. Key Findings: The adoption of the Paris Agreement with the long-term goal of reducing temperature increase...

This paper discusses the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis on the energy sector and frames it in the broader perspective of the climate crisis and development aspirations. We present practical challenges and responses observed in several emerging economies and developing countries, and discuss how key patterns in those countries are relevant for the post-COVID energy transition. We conclude by offering three considerations on how governments can strengthen their NDC update and signal the highest possible climate ambition for the energy sector. Key Findings: The effects of the COVID-19...