The recent wave of net zero targets has put the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C within striking distance. In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has calculated that global warming by 2100 could be as low as 2.1°C as a result of all the net zero pledges announced as of November 2020. Included in our new modelling is the announcement by China in September 2020 that it intends to reach carbon neutrality before 2060, which reduces the CAT end of century warming estimate by 0.2 to 0.3°C alone. Assuming carbon neutrality in the USA by 2050, as proposed by President-Elect Biden, would reduce...

This report analyses the momentum of targets for net-zero emissions across companies, cities and regions worldwide. We seek to unravel the ambiguity of net-zero targets to better enable the identification of truly ambitious actors and enhance support towards them. We offer recommendations for increasing target transparency with the aim of achieving greater accountability and ambition. Main Findings: 1. Net zero momentum is accelerating: The number of net-zero pledges from cities regions and companies has roughly doubled in less than a year since late 2019 As of October 2020, actors with net...

The rising importance of cities, states and regions, firms, investors, and other subnational and non-state actors in global and national responses to climate change raises a critical question: to what extent does this climate action deliver results? This article published in Climate Policy journal introduces a conceptual framework that researchers and practitioners can use as a template to assess the progress, implementation, and impact of climate action by sub- and non-state actors. Main Findings: The proposed framework is used to review existing studies that track progress, implementation...

This report presents an overview of recently adopted climate policies, climate-relevant responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and a state of play of NDC and LTS submissions in 25 countries and regions. The policy information compiled by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an update of a previous report published in June 2019, and supplements the December 2019 report on the projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under currently implemented policies and mitigation commitments. Main Findings...

In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker examines the COVID-19 recovery packages of five major emitters – China, EU27, India, South Korea and the USA; we present the global temperature update, taking into account the economic impact of COVID-19; and we share key insights from the updated assessments for 13 of the 36 countries assessed by the Climate Action Tracker, including projections of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on 2020 emissions. This briefing provides a directional analysis as to what we could expect in terms of emissions developments in the future, considering that COVID-19...

Financial institution’s climate-related investment targets have rapidly grown in recent years. In this report, we provide insights into the magnitude and ambition of these targets, and investigate their relationship with GHG emissions in the real economy. Specifically, this report maps out the financial sector’s climate-related investment targets against a range of indicators, such as monetary investments in ‘green’ projects, and required ‘green’ investments and GHG emission reductions. It thereby considers both climate-related investment pledges made by individual financial institutions as...

A growing number of subnational and corporate actors set net-zero emissions targets. These include some of the world’s largest companies, and hundreds of cities and regions around the world. This paper provides a summary of the momentum of target setting among these subnational and corporate actors. Main Findings: The shift towards net-zero greenhouse gas emission pathways is accelerating. An increasing number of subnational and corporate actors are setting net-zero emission targets. These encompass: 823 cities and 101 regions, which represent more than 828 million people across every...

This report assesses the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated recovery measures on emissions out to 2030 and global emission pathways towards meeting the Paris climate goals (‘what-if’ scenarios). Furthermore, the study reviews the most recent insights published in the literature on post-COVID emissions projections and green recovery trajectories, and provide a framework for analysing the ‘greenness’ of recovery packages, using Germany as a case study. Main Findings: This report assesses the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated recovery measures on emissions out...

This article quantifies the potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions resulting from the full implementation of major international cooperative initiatives’ (ICIs) goals. We develop criteria to select the most significant ICIs to aggregate, and propose novel methodologies to quantify emission reduction impacts and account for overlaps between them. The analysis was conducted for 17 initiatives, across eight sectors and ten major emitting economies accounting for roughly two-thirds of global GHG emissions in 2019. ICIs are international activities outside the UNFCCC driven by cities...

A major question of international climate policy is which countries have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by how much. As ambitious global climate policy has been delayed for long, emissions now have to be reduced in all countries as fast as possible. Considerations whether the national emission pathway itself is in line with the responsibility and capability of that country moves more and more into the background. It is now more a question of who pays for the transition, not where it is happening. In this paper with Fraunhofer ISI, we argue that only the combination of assessments on...

This paper examines the broad policy frameworks that can support the development and upscaling of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) without diverting attention from ambitious greenhouse gas emissions reductions and, in particular, whether CDR can be supported by offsetting schemes. Setting separate emission reduction and removal targets may be a way to achieve this. The paper was funded by the Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative (C2G), which is an initiative of the Carnegie Council for Ethics and International Affairs. Context and approach: The special report on the 1.5°C temperature limit by...

Weltweit müssen aktuelle Klimaschutzziele überarbeitet werden, um die im Pariser Abkommen beschlossenen Ziele einhalten zu können. Auch in Deutschland ist die Diskussion in vollem Gange. Diese Kurzstudie beschäftigt sich mit den aktuellen Klimaschutzzielen der Bundesregierung und deren Kompatibilität mit dem deutschen CO 2 Budget. Dafür hat NewClimate Institute die Entstehungsgeschichte der deutschen Klimaschutzziele zusammengetragen und ein Budget von Treibhausgasemissionen ausgerechnet, das einem fairen Beitrag für Deutschland entspräche. Zusammenfassung: Die Klimaziele, die sich Deutschland...

At a time when action on climate change is more urgent than ever, the Initiative for Climate Action Transparency (ICAT) has deployed a set of tools to help countries assess the impact of their climate policies and improve their chances of strengthening and achieving their national climate goals under the Paris Agreement. The ICAT Assessment Guides provide governments and non-state actors with the means to assess the impacts of national policies and actions that reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Besides assessing impacts on emissions, the Guides help to assess impacts on countries’...

Nearly all the world’s governments have prepared and submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), setting out their climate pledges under the 2015 Paris Agreement. These NDCs are to be regularly updated, and many countries are expected to submit a new NDC in 2020. While several studies have assessed the content and potential impacts of the NDCs, this article focusses on the preparatory process and asks the question: under what conditions can countries be expected to develop NDCs that are sufficiently ambitious to contribute to fulfilling the Paris Agreement goals? For some...

This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 25 major emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The report concludes that 12 out of the 25 countries and regions analysed are not on track to achieve the NDC targets they have set for themselves. This report updates the 2018 report, and...

In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker presents the global temperature update and shares key insights from the updated assessments. Under current pledges, the world will warm by 2.8°C by the end of the century, close to twice the limit they agreed in Paris. Governments are even further from the Paris temperature limit in terms of their real-world action, which would see the temperature rise by 3°C. An ‘optimistic’ take on real-world action including additional action that governments are planning still only limits warming to 2.8°C. Warming estimates have fallen by 0.1-0.2°C compared to...

Developed by NewClimate Institute, Germanwatch and CAN, the index ties in with the global Climate Change Performance Index by Germanwatch, a rating of the 58 largest emitters of GHG emissions globally that has been published annually since 2006. Foreword: Informing the process of raising climate ambition Published annually since 2005, the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) is an independent monitoring tool for tracking countries’ climate protection performance. It aims to enhance transparency in international climate politics and enables comparison of climate protection efforts and...

This report shows the potential distribution of the emissions reduction efforts between different Parties based on different approaches and presents an in-depth assessment of the circumstances influencing the (over-) achievement of the currently suggested emissions reduction goals. The analysis focuses on the following countries: Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Japan and the United States. Main findings: Keeping global warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, as stipulated in the Paris Agreement, requires accelerated efforts to reduce...

This report shows national GHG emissions reductions for 2030 and 2050 that are consistent with the Paris Agreements’ long-term temperature goal, both based on fairness and cost-effectiveness approaches. The range of fair shares was derived from an evaluation of a broad spectrum of fairness-based approaches by the Climate Action Tracker. The cost-effective reduction shares are based on recent marginal abatement cost curves, which were used to derive globally cost-effective national pathways. Main findings: In the Paris Agreement, which came into force in November 2016, the Parties to the United...

This summary report creates a framework to evaluate if a GST is successful and formulates recommendations for the design of the GST process. Please note that this is the executive summary of the full report that was published in advance to already feed into the negotiations at COP25. The main document will be provided subsequently. Key findings: The Paris Agreement combines collective goals with individual countries’ contributions. This hybrid approach does not guarantee that the individual contributions add up to what is required to meet the collective goals. The Paris Agreement therefore...

The independent Global Stocktake (iGST) seeks to increase the accuracy, transparency, accountability, and relevance of the official Global Stocktake benchmarking process by bringing together independent researchers and advocates. In this paper, build on previous work, we aim to identify knowledge gaps as well as potential areas of focus for a successful GST to take place. Executive summary: The Paris Agreement includes a cycle of ambition. Each five years, starting in 2023, a Global Stocktake (GST) analyses the global situation and provides information for countries to prepare updated...

Ahead of the UN Climate Action Summit 2019, UNEP with support of NewClimate Institute has released an advance chapter of the flagship 2019 Emissions Gap Report, which notes that G20 members, who account for around 80 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, are not yet taking on transformative climate commitments at the breadth and scale necessary. The chapter titled “Bridging the Gap: Enhancing Mitigation Ambition and Action at G20 Level and Globally” notes that “the majority of G20 countries are not yet taking on transformative climate commitments at the necessary scale—if this does not...

This study assesses the EU's 2050 target, i.e. halving global emissions by 2050 to be in line with 2°C, in today's setting to evaluate if the target, which was set ten years ago, is still appropriate and/or sufficient. It offers recommendations for the EU to aim for more ambitious targets. Key findings: The EU’s 2050 greenhouse gas reduction target of 80% to 95% from 1990 levels adopted 10 years ago is outdated as its basis has changed substantially. The global goal agreed in Paris in 2015 is more ambitious and pathways to that goal are now steeper not only because of the more ambitious goal...