In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) estimates global warming by 2100 to be at an all-time low of 2.4°C. Due to recent climate action announcements at President Biden’s Leaders Summit on Climate, together with those announced since September 2020, have improved the CAT’s global warming estimate by 0.2°C. This emissions gap needs to be closed with further NDC target updates this year and targets have yet to be supported by ambitious policies. Leaders’ Summit on Climate creates new momentum on climate action Climate action announcements at US President Biden’s Leaders Summit on...

This report discusses inputs for countries to set their mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement, so that those targets are in line with long-term temperature limit. It reconciles different approaches and suggests closing the disparity of the results from the equity and cost-effectiveness approaches through international support. Further, it analyses spill-over effect of domestic action and provides inputs to the discussion around the long-term mitigation goal of the European Union. Key Findings: The adoption of the Paris Agreement with the long-term goal of reducing temperature increase...

The triple COVID-19, economic, and climate crisis poses a growing challenge to debt sustainability and financing for climate action. There are growing calls to look for solutions for the three crisis together, notably through “debt-for-climate” swaps. Though not a general panacea, such proposals may represent an attractive option for both debtors and creditors. As an input into this ongoing discussion, this working paper proposes several potential broad criteria and proxy indicators as a starting point to identify countries where such debt swaps could be piloted, potentially with lessons...

This paper discusses the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis on the energy sector and frames it in the broader perspective of the climate crisis and development aspirations. We present practical challenges and responses observed in several emerging economies and developing countries, and discuss how key patterns in those countries are relevant for the post-COVID energy transition. We conclude by offering three considerations on how governments can strengthen their NDC update and signal the highest possible climate ambition for the energy sector. Key Findings: The effects of the COVID-19...

Georgia is at an important crossroad with regards to the short-, medium- and long-term future of infrastructure and investment in the transport sector. Transport is a key sector for Georgia’s Climate Strategy and Action Plan (CSAP), which was prepared for parliamentary consideration in 2020 alongside Georgia’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement. These documents were partially informed by the analysis compiled in this report, which supported the transport sector to identify actions for reducing emissions. This report explores several emission pathway...

This scientific article in ‘Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews’ looks at climate change mitigation policies in five major emitting economies: China, the European Union, India, Japan and the United States. It analyses their performance in terms of energy system and greenhouse gas emissions indicators. The review centres on the sectors of electricity generation, passenger vehicles, freight transport, forestry, industry, buildings, agriculture, and oil and gas production. The article further presents an explorative emissions scenario developed under the assumption that all countries will...

In the coming years, Poland will gain access to unprecedented funds for thermal modernization of buildings. Limited monitoring of financial flows in the area of building renovation creates a risk of only partial and inefficient use of this opportunity. Main Findings: Thermal modernisation of buildings does not only play a key role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions but can also be an important stimulus measure for the recovery of European economies after the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is one of the key investment areas supported not only by the EU’s Multiannual Financial...

The EU cement sector has made progress to reduce emissions in the past three decades, yet there is a long way ahead for the carbon-intensive industry to decarbonise. In this study, potential decarbonisation pathways are developed and analysed based on different highly innovative technology routes. Based on the results, challenges and opportunities related to specific technologies are identified, informing policy recommendations for the near-, mid- and long term. Main findings: The characteristics of the traditional cement production process, with its major part of emissions originating from...

The Climate Action Tracker explored a new approach to understanding opportunities for sectoral decarbonisation, using the example of the transport sector in India. To hold global average temperature increase to 1.5°C, global CO2 emissions need to reach net-zero by 2050, with rapid decarbonisation in all sectors. Global transport emissions have continued to steadily increase, with transport emissions accounting for 24 percent of direct CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. In this study we look specifically at how India can decarbonise its transport sector, its fastest-growing source of carbon...

Recent analyses developed by Fraunhofer ISI and NewClimate Institute show that faster and steeper than expected cost reductions for certain key mitigation technologies over the past five years can lead to an increased technology uptake and to a higher level of climate ambition, if the initially intended investment sum is maintained. The here presented technical assessment builds on the previously developed methodology to estimate the potential impact of investment cost reductions for renewable energy technologies (solar photovoltaics (PV) and onshore wind) on Argentina’s climate targets in the...

In order to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to rapidly move from a zero-sum offsetting approach towards rapid transitions to decarbonise all emitting sectors. Though originally developed for offsetting, using aspects of carbon market mechanisms to deliver results-based finance can have an important role in climate change mitigation and climate finance mobilisation goals. Such finance can either go towards helping host countries achieve their NDCs or in order to create an overall climate benefit. Various aspects and infrastructure built for carbon markets can be used as...

This study aims to obtain enhanced understanding of subnational (e.g. cities and subnational regions) and non-state (e.g. companies) actors’ action on GHG emissions reductions in the European Union (EU). Specifically, we present an overview of findings in the recent literature on (i) landscape of sub/non-state action, (ii) interactions between EU policy making and sub/non-state actors, (iii) potential GHG emissions reductions additional to the reductions expected under national policies, and (iv) progress towards their own short- to mid-term targets and long-term goals. This report focuses on...

This is the eleventh edition of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report. It assesses the gap between estimated future global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions if countries implement their climate mitigation pledges and the global emission levels from least-cost pathways that are aligned with achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” has become known as the ‘emissions gap’. The report also examines two areas that are highly relevant for bridging the gap and which have become even...

Developed by Germanwatch , NewClimate Institute and CAN , the index rates 57 greenhouse emitters globally since 2005. Foreword The CCPI analyzes and compares climate protection across 57 countries (plus EU as a whole) with the highest emissions. Together these countries account for 90 percent of global emissions. The index aims to enhance transparency in international climate politics and enable comparison of mitigation efforts and progress made by individual countries. Main findings: Climate Change Performance Index 2021: Still no country good enough; EU stands at a crossroads The Climate...

The 2020 NDC Update report discusses countries’ preparedness to ratchet up ambition in the first NDC update cycle amidst a global health crisis. Based on our survey of 98 policy makers and experts involved in NDC planning and implementation from 83 countries, we discuss the progress of NDC implementation since 2015, expectations for the NDC update cycle, and progress on the development of Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies (LTSs). We analyse the potential impact of COVID-19 on climate planning and climate action with regards to the future of clean technologies, the...

This report assesses options for the effective implementation of sustainable development impact assessment, in the context of climate change mitigation mechanisms such as those of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. To ensure that these mechanisms contribute to sustainable development in the host country, it is necessary to measure this effect. The results of the project show how and which indicators at project level can be used in a targeted manner for monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV). In this way, tools are made available to decision-makers and project developers in voluntary and...

This report analyses how the role of sustainable development can be strengthened in the process of further designing the mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The paper reflects on the experience with sustainable development in past and current market mechanisms and describes to what extent countries agreed on sustainable development issues in multilateral instruments and institutions outside the UNFCCC. Based on the current negotiating draft texts (SBSTA 50 from June 2019, as well as CMA2 from December 2019), recommendations are put forward on how to anchor sustainable...

Esta guía ofrece recomendaciones a los tomadores de decisiones sobre cómo abordar la elaboración de una LTS o estrategia a largo plazo para un desarrollo bajo en emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, dadas las circunstancias singulares de cada país en 2020, y de las futuras revisiones de la misma. Resumen para Tomadores de Decisiones: Contexto En el marco del Acuerdo de París, las 198 Partes de la CMNUCC se comprometieron colectivamente a mantener el aumento de la temperatura media mundial muy por debajo de 2°C con respecto a los niveles preindustriales y perseguir esfuerzos para limitar...