Events with NewClimate Institute participation:

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Side event: High expectations – Did the UN Climate Action Summit achieve higher climate ambitions? (NewClimate-Event)
This session will compare the outcomes of the Global Climate Action Summit in September to the expectations that were raised beforehand, and include a debate on the extent to which the Summit has raised the ambition of countries, what that means for emission reductions and what urgent other steps countries should take.
Organiser: Climate transparency, UNEP DTU Partnership, NewClimate Institute
Speakers: Takeshi Kuramochi (NewClimate), Anne Olhoff (UNEP DTU Partnership), Gerd Leipold (Climate transparency), Fabby Tumiwa (IESR, Indonesia)

Monday 2 December
18h30 – 20h00
EU Pavilion
Room Brussels

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Side event: Informing the revision of NDCs: What can long-term strategies bring to NDCs? (NewClimate-Event)
This session seeks to review how long-term strategies (LTS) inform NDCs and influence near-term measures and investments consistent with a deep decarbonisation of the economy.
Organiser: Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales (IDDRI), NewClimate Institute
Speakers: various, incl. Frauke Röser (NewClimate)

Tuesday 3 December
15h00 – 16h30
Room 3

Side event: The Emissions Gap and NDC enhancement (NewClimate-Event)
This event will present the latest findings from this year’s UNEP Emissions Gap Report, and will lay out options for how countries can help close the gap by stepping up the ambition of their NDCs. Speakers will offer guidance on opportunities for NDC enhancement in key sectors, such as forests, power, and transport.
Organiser: World Resources Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, NewClimate Institute
Speakers: Takeshi Kuramochi (NewClimate), Anne Olhoff (UNEP DTU Partnership), Michel den Elzen (PBL), Taryn Fransen (World Resources Institute)

Tuesday 3 December
16h30 – 18h00
EU Pavilion
Room Brussels

Side event: The Emissions Gap Report 2019 – The emissions gap and options for bridging it
The event presents the latest trends in GHGs and progress towards achieving the NDCs, while updating the ’emissions gap’, the gap between countries’ pledges and the reductions required for meeting the 1.5C and 2C targets. Then it presents opportunities for enhancing mitigation ambition of G20 members, strategies for transformations toward zero carbon development pathways, policy options for clean transition of the energy systems; and mitigation potentials of material efficiency.
Organiser: German Environment Agency (UBA), co-organised with UNEP DTU Partnership
Speakers: various, incl. Takeshi Kuramochi and Niklas Höhne (both NewClimate)
Emissions Gap Report 2019

Wednesday 4 December
13h30 – 14h30
German Pavilion
Hall 6, stand 6A36

Side event: Sustainable development impacts under Article 6 (NewClimate-Event)
Projects that reduce GHG often have SD impacts which are important for the voluntary market but also have significant potential for SDGs in Paris based market approaches. The informed use of SD indicators and safeguards has the potential to improve effective implementation of SD benefits through transparency and efficient quantification.
Organiser: Umwelt Bundesamt, NewClimate Institute
Moderator: Carsten Warnecke, Founding Partner, NewClimate Institute
Presenters and respondents: Frauke Röser (Founding Partner, NewClimate Institute), Sarah Leugers (Director, Communications, Gold Standard), Erika Lennon (Senior Attorney, Center for International Environmental Law CIEL), Aki Kachi (Climate Policy Analyst, NewClimate Institute), Sven Braden (Independent Consultant), Comments from Negotiators

Friday 6 December
10h30 – 12h00
IETA BusinessHub
Side Event Room

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Side event: Achieving net zero: Opportunities to close the gap to 1.5°C in Europe and beyond (NewClimate-Event)
This side event presents the latest research by the Climate Action Tracker, including case studies on how countries can develop Paris compatible policies, enhanced NDCs, and LTS, and a new framework to assess climate governance. The event will also explore how carbon pricing instruments can be designed to enhance political and social acceptance, ensuring a fair distribution of both the burden and benefits of the policy, with effects beyond emissions reductions.
Organisers: Climate Analytics, Adelphi, NewClimate Institute, ClimateWorks Foundation
Speakers: Claire Stockwell (Climate Analytics), Louise Jeffery (NewClimate), Swithin Lui (NewClimate), Andreas Geiges (Climate Analytics), Paola Parra (Climate Analytics), Niklas Höhne (NewClimate), Bill Hare (Climate Analytics), Casey Cronin (ClimateWorks Foundation) and country representatives (tbc)
Climate Action Tracker

Friday 6 December
18h30 – 20h00
EU Pavilion
Room Helsinki

Side event: NDC ambition-raising through integrated national and sectoral planning in Mongolia and Georgia (NewClimate-Event)
Mongolia and Georgia have intensively worked on revising their NDCs. The NDC revision process contributed to an increased awareness among relevant decision-makers and stakeholders on integration of climate mitigation and adaptation efforts into development policy and planning. The session aims to present the Georgian and Mongolian experiences and lessons learnt from their NDC revision based on close coordination and alignment with planning processes.
Organiser: Government of Mongolia, Government of Georgia, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GIZ, NewClimate Institute
Speakers: Thomas Day (NewClimate), Ilka Starrost (GIZ), Kakhaberi Mdivani (Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture, Georgia), Ministry of Environment and Tourism, Mongolia
To the project page

Monday 9 December
15h00 – 16h00
NDC Pavilion

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Press conference: Climate Change Performance Index – presentation of results (NewClimate-Event)
In this press conference, we present the latest results of the Climate Change Performance Index. The index aims to encourage countries which have, up to now, failed to take ambitious actions on climate protection as well as to highlight countries with best-practice climate policies. The index evaluates and compares the climate protection performance of the 58 largest emitters of GHG emissions globally and has been published annually since 2006.
Organiser: Germanwatch, Climate Action Network CAN, NewClimate Institute
Speakers: various, including Niklas Höhne (NewClimate) and Jan Burck (Germanwatch)

Tuesday 10 December
10h00 – 10h30
Room Mocha

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Press conference: Climate Action Tracker – presentation of the latest developments (NewClimate-Event)
In this press conference, we will present the updated country assessments, and a briefing paper that summarises the most crucial developments. We also welcome participants from outside of media, but please note that journalists will get to ask questions first.
Organiser: Climate Action Tracker (Climate Analytics, NewClimate Institute)
Speakers: Niklas Höhne (NewClimate), Bill Hare (Climate Analytics), others tba
CAT homepage

Tuesday 10 December
11h00-11h30
Room Mocha

Side event: NDCs, the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals: Tracking progress and finding synergies (NewClimate-Event)
This side-event presents the collaborative work of more than 20 national institutions from various countries worldwide on the latest quantitative assessments of projected GHG emissions pathways and key energy indicators for major emitting countries.
Organiser: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, NewClimate Institute
Speakers: various, incl. Niklas Höhne (NewClimate)

Wednesday 11 December
12h30 – 14h00
EU Pavilion
Room Brussels

Side event: Power system transformation – From technical challenges to proactive policymaking (NewClimate-Event)
The side event will discuss technical challenges and effective technical and policy options around the integration of variable renewable energy (VRE). A panel discussion with country experts will present challenges and opportunities in each country, facilitating interactions and exchange of experience.
Organiser: International Energy Agency IEA, NewClimate Institute
Speakers: Ditte Jull Jørgensen (EU Commission), David Turk (IEA), Marie-Jeanne Kurdziel (NewClimate), Wang Zhongying (ERI) and others
Accompanying documents

Wednesday 11 December
14h30 – 16h00
EU Pavilion
Room Brussels

Side event: Pathways to a sustainable future:
governance of CO2 removal & mitigation strategies for industry
This side event will examine the key role for CO2 Capture and Storage in large-scale emission reductions and removals, and will focus on pathways to low carbon cement and steel in Latin America.
Organiser: Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative (C2G), CO2Geonet, ImplementaSur
Speakers: various, incl. Niklas Höhne (NewClimate)

Wednesday 11 December
16h15 – 17h45
EU Pavilion
Room Brussels

Side event: Aligning operations of Multilateral Development Banks with the Paris Agreement (NewClimate-Event)
At COP25, the multilateral development banks (MDBs) will present a framework to align their financial flows with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. What does the ‘alignment of financial flows’ mean, how can it be put into practice and drive the demand of economies into climate-resilient and carbon-neutral development? We will present science-based recommendation for an ambitious implementation of development banks’ alignment with the Paris Agreement.
Organiser: Germanwatch, World Resources Institute, NewClimate Institute
Speakers: Markus Hagemann (NewClimate), Ingrid Hoven (BMZ), MDB representatives (tbc), David Ryfish (Germanwatch), Lauren Sidner (WRI)

Thursday 12 December
15h30 – 17h30
German Pavilion

Carbon markets:

The role of international carbon markets in a decarbonising world
A growing number of countries have started to set longer-term climate targets and develop decarbonisation strategies in addition to their shorter-term commitments under the Paris Agreement. Depending on the country, offsets in the form of emission reductions or emission removals from abroad play various roles in how countries sketch out future planning. In the context of constantly ratcheted up ambition of national climate efforts under the Paris Agreement however, the role that such offsets can play requires a shift from the current practice of offsetting continued emissions trends to rapidly avoiding and reducing all emissions possible and going still further to draw carbon out of the atmosphere. In this paper, we explore the new context and discuss what it means for both potential buying and selling countries on the way to a net-zero and net-negative carbon world.
To the report

Offset credit supply potential for CORSIA
In this discussion paper we estimate the marginal cost of supplying certified emissions reduction units (CERs) from projects that are currently registered under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). We develop a supply curve using data on the individual ability of projects to potentially supply CERs over the period up to 2020. We analyse changes to the supply curve based on a number of scenarios which restrict the eligibility of CERs based on the timing of emission reductions, the timing of project investment decisions and registration under the CDM, as well as an assessment of the extent to which projects are vulnerable to the risk of discontinuing abatement activities without CER revenues.
To the paper

How could the concept of an “overall mitigation in global emissions” (OMGE) be operationalized under the Paris Agreement? (Frequently asked questions)
This paper addresses questions that have been raised in relation to OMGE. It draws on a study conducted by Lambert Schneider and NewClimate Institute.
To the blogpost

Serious issues in the negotiations on international carbon markets (Article 6) must be addressed to avoid undermining the Paris Agreement
In this blogpost, the NewClimate markets team provided recommendations for the then imminent SB50 negotiations to guarantee that Article 6 ensures its mandate to promote ambition and avoid undermining global climate efforts. The findings are still very relevant for COP25.
To the blogpost

Climate and development:

NDC Update Report December 2019 – Long-term, society-wide visions for immediate action
The NDC Update Report tracks the progress on the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement. The theme of this report is the role of long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LTSs) in achieving the Paris Agreement goal. This report argues for the importance of developing long-term (sector) strategies to determine the highest possible ambition for the coming NDC update (until 2030) and to signal a clear path for future NDC ambition raising (towards net-zero in 2050). Governments can use the NDC update to signal that indeed the highest possible ambition needs to lead to decarbonisation by 2050 or shortly thereafter.
To the report

Ambition to Action Project
NewClimate Institute in partnership with the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) is supporting Argentina, Indonesia, Kenya and Thailand with the implementation of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), funded by the International Climate Initiative of the German government.
Recent outputs:

• Transition Towards a Decarbonised Electricity Sector – A Framework of Analysis for Power System Transformation
• The role of geothermal and coal in Kenya’s electricity sector and implications for sustainable development
  
• The role of renewable energy mini-grids in Kenya’s electricity sector

Tools and Models developed under Ambition to Action:

• Economic Impact Model (EIM): The model can be used to quantify employment and economic impacts of enhanced renewable energy scenarios and is being applied in various country contexts.
• Air Pollution Impact Model (AIRPOLIM): The model allows for the quantification of health impacts of fossil fuel based power plants (coal and gas). In future this will also include health impacts from transport activities.

Unlocking Low Cost Renewables in South East Europe
This report explores how various political and financial measures could help to “de-risk” renewables investment using onshore wind investments in Serbia and Greece as case examples.
To the report

A ten point agenda for delivering higher mitigation ambition
The paper formulates 10 points for mitigation ambition and includes recommendations on ways to support ambition raising through international cooperation.
To the report

Saving time and resources by aligning climate planning processes
This blogpost shows how countries could consolidate multiple climate change planning processes and international climate commitments into one single process, ensuring efficiency and alignment.
To the blogpost

Tracking countries’ climate actions:

Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries – Analysis of current climate policies and mitigation commitments: 2019 Update
This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 25 major emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The report concludes that 12 out of the 25 countries and regions analysed are not on track to achieve the NDC targets they have set for themselves. This report updates the 2018 report, and for the first time presents additional key indicators next to greenhouse gas emissions.
To the report

The Climate Change Performance Index 2020
Developed by NewClimate Institute, Germanwatch and CAN, the index ties in with the global Climate Change Performance Index by Germanwatch, a rating of the 58 largest emitters of GHG emissions globally that has been published annually since 2006.
To the report

Assessment of the potentials to increase emissions reduction targets by the major GHGs emitters taking into consideration technological and political feasibility
This report shows the potential distribution of the emissions reduction efforts between different Parties based on different approaches and presents an in-depth assessment of the circumstances influencing the (over-) achievement of the currently suggested emissions reduction goals. The analysis focuses on the following countries: Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Japan and the United States.
To the report

Fairness- and Cost-Effectiveness-Based Approaches to Effort-Sharing under the Paris Agreement
This report shows national GHG emissions reductions for 2030 and 2050 that are consistent with the Paris Agreements’ long-term temperature goal, both based on fairness and cost-effectiveness approaches. The range of fair shares was derived from an evaluation of a broad spectrum of fairness-based approaches by the Climate Action Tracker. The cost-effective reduction shares are based on recent marginal abatement cost curves, which were used to derive globally cost-effective national pathways.
To the report

Tackling the Challenges of Assessing Collective Progress for an Effective Global Stocktake
This summary report creates a framework to evaluate if a GST is successful and formulates recommendations for the design of the GST process.

Please note that this is the executive summary of the full report that was published in advance to already feed into the negotiations at COP25. The main document will be provided subsequently.
To the report

Guiding questions for the Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement – What we know and what we don’t
The independent Global Stocktake (iGST) seeks to increase the accuracy, transparency, accountability, and relevance of the official Global Stocktake benchmarking process by bringing together independent researchers and advocates. In this paper, build on previous work, we aim to identify knowledge gaps as well as potential areas of focus for a successful GST to take place.
To the report

Climate Action Tracker
The Climate Action Tracker evaluates whether 32 countries are on track to meet their climate commitments, annually estimates the global temperature increase based on implemented policies and pledges, and analyses options to strengthen mitigation action on a country and sector level.

Special report series:

• Climate Governance Assessment Series:This memo series provides guidance on how major emitting sectors can achieve the rapid transformations required to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goal. CAT Governance project page
• Scaling Up Climate Action: This report series considers options for countries to move their emissions towards a Paris Agreement compatible pathway and achieve significant benefits. The most recent reports cover Argentina, Australia, Indonesia and Turkey and their actions for electricity production, urban passenger transport, and residential buildings. CAT Scaling up project page

The Emissions Gap Report 2019: A UN Environment Synthesis Report
This is the tenth edition of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report. It provides the latest assessment of scientific studies on current and estimated future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and compares these with the emission levels permissible for the world to progress on a least-cost pathway to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” has become known as the ‘emissions gap’.
To the UNEP website
To the latest report

Global climate action from cities, regions and businesses – 2019
This report is the second global analysis of local and regional government and corporate climate contributions, updating “Global Climate Action from Cities, Regions, and Companies” launched at the 2018 Global Climate Action Summit. The 2018 report established the strong potential of subnational and non-state actors to help avoid climate change. This year, we aim to inform the September 2019 UN Climate Action Summit on how mitigation by cities, regions and companies could help national governments boost their ambition beyond their current targets, to come in line with the Paris Agreement’s goals.
To the report

A possible 2050 climate target for the EU
This study assesses the EU’s 2050 target, i.e. halving global emissions by 2050 to be in line with 2°C, in today’s setting to evaluate if the target, which was set ten years ago, is still appropriate and/or sufficient. It offers recommendations for the EU to aim for more ambitious targets.
To the report

Climate finance:

Raising the Game on Paris Alignment – Six Memos on the Multilateral Development Banks’ Paris Alignment Approach
This discussion paper provides six separate memos on the building blocks of Paris alignment introduced by the Multilateral Development Banks. The memos provide suggestions on how to design different tools for a robust framework for Paris alignment.
To the report

Key topics from NewClimate’s perspective:

Also this year NewClimate Institute will be participating in the UNFCCC climate negotiations and contributes to the conference with reports and other publications:

• How big is the climate action gap? Sadly, the climate action gap is as big as never before. A team of international scientists, including NewClimate experts, has compiled this for the tenth time now in the “UNEP Emissions Gap Report”. But there is a silver lining: agile countries, regions, cities and businesses take a lead role by alredy implementing the radical, but necessary changes.
• Will new national proposals on climate protection close the yawning gap? Which countries have improved their policies since Paris? Are the countries on track to meet their targets? Are new proposals better than previous ones? Regular updates on 36 countries are available on the Climate Action Tracker – press conference in Madrid on Tuesday, 10 December, 11 a.m.
• What could be rules for a new international carbon market? A last chapter of the rulebook to the Paris Agreement has not been agreed upon yet: the international carbon markets. The devil is in the details as explained in a NewClimate Blogpost. The goals of the Paris Agreement ask countries to develop and implement long term strategies that include the fastest technically feasible decarbonisation pathway. Therefore a new role of offsets needs to deviate from the current practice to not undermine the ambitions and meanings of net zero targets. Furthermore, it’s important how international aviation (NewClimate output) and shipping (paper with different options) can be included. Without strict eligibility criteria, the mechanisms for compensation in international aviation may not have any impact.
• How can climate protection and development be combined? In Kenia, for example, small, stand-alone renewable energy systems – mini-grids – can not only bring power to remote areas, but also drive the general development. In south-eastern Europe, proper finance instruments can significantly decrease the risks for investments in wind power. And having a look at neighbouring countries’ approaches can support the energy transition.

For questions or further discussion, meet us at one of our events, or contact us as follows:

• Niklas Höhne on international climate protection: +49 1737152279, n.hoehne@newclimate.org, on site from 4 until 11 December
• Carsten Warnecke on international carbon markets: +49 151 68 400100, c.warnecke@newclimate.org, on site from 2 until 7 December
• Frauke Röser on climate and development: +49 151 6840 9310, f.roeser@newclimate.org, on site from 3 until 8. December