Publications

cover-picture-innovative-financing-adaptation-fund-report Innovative Financing for the Adaptation Fund: Pathways and Potentials Feb 2017 - This new report explores the potential of seven innovative climate finance options to meet the financing needs of the Adaptation Fund. It concludes that if implemented in a collective manner, these can provide a steady and predictable stream of finance for the Fund. However, the Adaptation Fund Board needs to proactively engage with relevant decision makers, following a dynamic resource mobilisation strategy. Potential engagement pathways for each option are discussed as well.
intlmarketmex International market mechanisms after Paris Nov 2016 - The purpose of this paper is to identify the main goals and aims of the international carbon market, take into account the general context and environment for carbon markets under the Paris Agreement, identify and discuss the main issues of the relevant paragraphs and analyse issues of the interaction and relationship of the provisions including synergies and conflicts. The paper aims at facilitating the discussion among UNFCCC parties while, given the dynamic nature of the topic, it can obviously only be a snapshot of the current status of the discussions.
cat-10steps Ten steps in ten years toward the 1.5˚C warming limit – Climate Action Tracker Nov 2016 - Download report Download summary Marrakech, 16 November 2016 The Climate Action Tracker today spelt out ten important, short-term steps that key sectors need to take to help the world achieve the Paris Agreement’s 1.5˚C limit. All key sectors—energy generation, road transport, buildings, industry, forestry and land use, and commercial agriculture—have to begin major efforts to… Read More
uba-icis-image International Climate Initiatives – A way forward to close the emissions gap? Nov 2016 - This study analyses the potential impact of the most ambitious International Climate Initiatives (ICIs) on GHG emissions in comparison to INDCs, identifies good practices shared by these initiatives, and further discusses the relationship between these initiatives and the UNFCCC.
ghg-mitigation-scenarios Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries Nov 2016 - This report provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas emissions in 25 major emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of (I)NDCs.
emissionsgap The Emissions Gap Report 2016: A UNEP Synthesis Report Nov 2016 - The objective of this seventh UNEP Emissions Gap Report is to provide an up-to-date scientific assessment of the global progress towards the emissions reductions required to be on track to meet the long-term goal of the UNFCCC.
1gtreport2016 1 Gigaton Coalition Report: Renewable energy and energy efficiency in developing countries Nov 2016 - Renewable energy and energy efficiency projects implemented in developing countries from 2005 to 2015 will reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by almost half a gigatonne by 2020, according to the second report by the 1 Gigaton Coalition.
clim-policy cover The Paris Agreement: resolving the inconsistency between global goals and national contributions Nov 2016 - Article published in Climate Policy on resolving the inconsistency between global goals and national contributions. We find that many of the contributions are conservative and in some cases may be overachieved. We also find that the preparation of the INDCs has advanced national climate policy-making, notably in developing countries.
cat-buildings Constructing the future: Will the building sector use its decarbonisation tools Nov 2016 - This CAT analysis sets out a 1.5˚C pathway for the buildings sector that would see all new buildings zero-energy in the OECD by 2020 and by 2025 in non-OECD countries, combined with very high rates of deep renovation of older buildings.
ecbi Two Unconventional Options to Enhance Multilateral Climate Finance Oct 2016 - NewClimate Institute contributed to a policy brief on ‘Two unconventional options to enhance multilateral climate finance’ under the European Capacity Building Initiative (ecbi).
cdp CDP Climate Change Report 2016 Oct 2016 - The CDP Climate Change Report 2016, in collaboration with the We Mean Business coalition, presents carbon emissions and climate change mitigation data from a global sample of 1,089 companies. The first in an annual series, the report tracks companies’ progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement against this benchmark.
turkey Co-benefits of climate action: Assessing Turkey’s climate pledge Oct 2016 - This report prepared by New Climate Institute and with Climate Action Network Europe’s contribution, aims at identifying for Turkey the co-benefits of policies compatible with climate change mitigation objectives for job creation, public health and dependency on energy imports.
greenpeace_nl What does the Paris Agreement mean for climate policy in the Netherlands? Oct 2016 - In this study, we have translated the global ambition of the Paris Agreement into concrete sectoral targets applicable to the Netherlands. Climate policy must be strengthened substantially in order for the Netherlands to be in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
namas-report-2016-picture Designing NAMAs to catalyze bankable low-carbon investments Oct 2016 - This policy brief looks at how to develop NAMAs in the form of policy and financial frameworks that make low-carbon projects bankable. This entails combining policy reforms and targeted interventions that address investment barriers and risks, as well as the development of a pipeline of low-carbon investments.
cat-the-road-ahead The road ahead: How do we move to cleaner car fleets Sep 2016 - Zero emission vehicles need to take over car market to reach 1.5°C limit: analysis
Picture_report Brown to Green Sep 2016 - Download report Visit the ‘Climate Transparency’ page See open response to comments from the Minister for the Environment and Energy, Australia This “Brown to Green” report by Climate Transparency provides a comprehensive overview and assessment for the G20 countries, whether – and how well – they are doing on the journey to transition to a… Read More
cover_nature Publication in Nature: Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2°C Jun 2016 - The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas… Read More
Paris Agreement - We Mean Business The Paris Agreement – What it Means for Business Jun 2016 - This report looks at the linkages between the Paris Agreement and countries’ NDCs and the business implications in renewable energy markets, carbon pricing, management of climate risks, and resilience building.
Business end of Climate The Business End of Climate Change Jun 2016 - This report estimates how large the contribution towards bending the emissions curve to “well below 2°C” from five representative initiatives – RE100, Science-Based Targets, EP100, Zero-Deforestation, and the LCTPi –could be, under the current and expected commitments of an ever-increasing group of companies. It also shows how much bigger it could be with supportive policy environments.
Allianz Climate and Energy Monitor Allianz Climate and Energy Monitor May 2016 - The Allianz Climate and Energy Monitor ranks G20 member states on their attractiveness as potential destinations for investment in low-carbon electricity infrastructure. It takes into account their current and future investment needs in line with a 2° C global warming trajectory.
Discussion Paper SBSTA 2016 Climate initiatives, national contributions and the Paris Agreement May 2016 - This draft discussion paper evaluates the GHG mitigation contribution of global, regional and national initiatives in relation to nationally determined contributions.
CLOE 20_2 Cover_CLOE_I_20_07-08_COVER Publication in Local Environment: The transformational potential of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions in Tanzania: assessing the concept’s cultural legitimacy among stakeholders in the solar energy sector Mar 2016 - While energy-sector emissions remain the biggest source of climate change, many least-developed countries still invest in fossil-fuel development paths. These countries generally have high levels of fossil-fuel technology lock-in and low capacities to change, making the shift to sustainable energy difficult. Tanzania, a telling example, is projected to triple fossil-fuel power production in the next… Read More
INDC Post Paris After Paris: What is next for Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)? Mar 2016 - This paper outlines what the Paris Agreement means for Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and what needs to happen at the country level now and in the longer term to implement the Agreement. The paper focuses explicitly on the mitigation part of national contributions and discusses specific steps in response to the relevant parts of the agreed framework including a view on how these may be supported internationally.
Challenges Lessons INDCs Challenges and lessons learned in the preparation of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) Mar 2016 - This document presents a synthesis of the main challenges and lessons learned from the preparation process of intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) by Parties to the UNFCCC in the run up to Paris.
conditionality of indcs Conditionality of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) Feb 2016 - This briefing paper by NewClimate Institute concisely presents the key information and aspects on the conditionality of countries‘ mitigation contributions in their INDCs. It gives an overview of the variety of forms of conditional contributions and of the types of conditions, which closely reflect some of the important issues discussed at the international policy level.
Greenpeace_Feb16_2 What does the Paris Agreement mean for climate protection in Germany? Feb 2016 -     The long-term global climate goals of the Paris Agreement adopted by nearly 200 countries in December 2015, imply enhanced efforts for greenhouse gas emissions reductions in Germany. The phrasing of the long term goals of the Paris Agreement goes beyond prior political consensus. The objective is to limit the global increase in temperature… Read More
1Gt report Narrowing the emissions gap: Contributions from renewable energy and energy efficiency activities Dec 2015 - The inaugural report of the 1 Gigaton Coalition is now available, and details the emissions saved after analysing nearly 6,000 renewable energy and energy efficiency activities in developing countries.
Picture GPA report Global Good Practice Analysis 2.0 Dec 2015 - Download Summary Report Download case studies The Global Good Practice Analysis is a joint initiative by the International Partnership on Mitigation and MRV and the UNDP Low Emission Capacity Building Programme and documents examples of mitigation-related good practice worldwide which demonstrate how INDCs, LEDS, NAMAs and MRV systems are being effectively designed and implemented across… Read More
faster-cleaner Faster and Cleaner – Decarbonisation in the power and transport sectors is surpassing predictions and offering hope for limiting warming Dec 2015 - The transition from fossil fuels to cleaner, safer energy technologies is under way. To pinpoint where decarbonization is happening most rapidly—and to extract lessons and best practices that can be applied to other areas of the global economy where progress is needed in the fight against climate change—this study by ClimateWorks, NewClimate Institute, Ecofys, and Climate Analytics compares past projections with actual developments in renewable energy, coal consumption, and passenger vehicles.
unepgap15 The sixth Emissions Gap Report 2015 Dec 2015 - Download report This sixth UNEP Emissions Gap Report provides a scientific assessment of the mitigation contributions from the submitted INDCs. As in the previous reports, it then compares the resulting emission levels in 2030 with what science tells us is required to be on track towards the agreed target of a global average temperature increase… Read More
Report_UBA mitigation commitment How can the new climate agreement support robust national mitigation targets? Opportunities up to Paris and beyond. Dec 2015 - Download report The international community is negotiating a new global climate agreement to be applicable from 2020 onwards. Parties aim at signing the agreement in December 2015, at the Conference of Parties (COP) in Paris. Until then, countries are already preparing proposals for their individual contributions, their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). The INDCs will,… Read More
Background paper INDCs Options for assessing ambition of mitigation commitments beyond Paris Dec 2015 - Download report This paper provides an overview of options to assess mitigation commitments before Paris and beyond. This includes a review of current activities to assess individual INDCs as well as a discussion of some of the attributes and requirements such assessment needs to fulfil. The paper goes on to explore options of how the… Read More
goodpracticepolicies2015 Progress towards good practice policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions Dec 2015 - Go to report This study compared recommendations for good practice climate change mitigation policies from various institutions with the current status of application of these policies by countries. In an initial attempt, a broad set of climate mitigation-related policies covering all sectors were analysed for the 30 major emitting countries that comprise 82% of global… Read More
INDC catalyst Preparation of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) as a catalyst for national climate action Dec 2015 - Go to download report The preparation for the new international climate agreement has advanced national policy making even before the agreement is adopted. NewClimate Institute in cooperation with Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB), assessed the extent to… Read More
2c Developing 2°C compatible investment criteria Nov 2015 - This report studies the development of criteria for assessing the compatibility of financial investments with the international goal to limit global temperature increase to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
8 Impacts of the Clean Development Mechanism Nov 2015 - This focus study presents a quantitative assessment of the mitigation impact of the CDM that occurs as a side effect of the current depressed market conditions. The annual net mitigation impact of the CDM in 2014 is in the order of 480 MtCO2e and thus might have reduced global emissions by approximately 1% in 2014
EE report How energy efficiency cuts costs for a 2-degree future Nov 2015 - This study indicates that scenarios with higher energy efficiency mostly show lower abatement costs.
NAMAs and INDCs NAMAs and INDCs: Interactions and opportunities Nov 2015 - This paper explores the links between NAMAs and INDCs with regard to various elements central to their implementation.
cobenefits of indcs Assessing the missed benefits of countries’ national contributions Nov 2015 - This report investigates the co-benefits associated with countries' Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).
Mitigation commitments Mitigation commitments and fair effort sharing in a new comprehensive climate agreement starting 2020 Nov 2015 - This report offers deliberations on what a “fair share” for emissions in 2025 and 2030 could be for 10 selected countries.
Mercator Initiatives How much more could Germany achieve through non-state action? Nov 2015 - The aim of this study is to quantify the potential impact of a selected number of actions by non-state actors and partnerships on Germany’s GHG emissions. We focus chiefly on the impact of such initiatives on the 2020 emissions gap, although our analysis also extends to longer-term targets (2030 to 2050) wherever such pledges exist.
journalcover_2015_11 Publication in Nature Climate Change: National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership Oct 2015 - Achieving the collective goal of limiting warming to below 2 °C or 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels requires a transition towards a fully decarbonized world. Annual greenhouse gas emissions on such a path in 2025 or 2030 can be allocated to individual countries using a variety of allocation schemes. We reanalyse the IPCC literature allocation database… Read More
CMR3-2015 Where do they go from here? Analysing the status quo of CDM projects Oct 2015 - The situation of project activities, and domestic and international capacities related to the CDM, have noticeably deteriorated following the recent decline of the market conditions. However, a major information gap exists regarding the actual status of individual CDM projects worldwide, as well as their current barriers and required means for the continuation of these projects. In order to close this gap, a large representative sample of projects were evaluated individually in a recent study to extract insights and lessons regarding national situations, technology-specific considerations, and the CDM as a whole.
INDC_lessons Overcoming the challenges of INDC preparation: experiences and lessons learned Aug 2015 - The report documents the challenges that countries have faced in their INDC preparation process, and lessons learned for overcoming them.
Connectingthedots Connecting the dots – Results-based financing in climate policy Aug 2015 - This study clarifies the definition of results-based financing (RBF) and in particular its role in the context of climate policy. The publication is aimed at readers from the carbon markets and climate finance communities alike. It facilitates a common understanding of what RBF as a financing modality involves and is therefore meant to also be a good starting point for readers looking into this topic for the first time.
journalcover_2015_09 Publication in Nature Climate Change: Aligning corporate greenhouse-gas emissions targets with climate goals Aug 2015 - Corporate climate action is increasingly considered important in driving the transition towards a low-carbon economy. For this, it is critical to ensure translation of global goals to greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets at company level. At the moment, however, there is a lack of clear methods to derive consistent corporate target setting that keeps cumulative… Read More
untitled Comparative assessment of Japan’s long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles Jul 2015 - This article assesses Japan’s carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated Budget.
Impacts-of-GPP The impact of good practice policies on regional and global greenhouse gas emissions Jul 2015 - The report The impact of good practice policies on regional and global greenhouse gas emissions by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis looks at the impact of “good practice” emission reduction policies in nine different areas globally and across six countries: China, Brazil, India, the US, Russia and Japan.
Track 0 picture 2 From 90 pages to 9: Track 0 writes a draft Paris Agreement Jul 2015 - Track 0’s Founder and CEO Farhana Yamin and two of Track 0’s advisors, Erik Haites and Niklas Höhne, have compiled a Paris Agreement which offers one possible way in which the 90 pages of unwieldy text can be whittled down to produce an ambitious, yet politically balanced and comprehensive agreement.
2C-Investment Developing criteria to align investments with 2°C compatible pathways Jun 2015 - This report was prepared in the context of the G7 summit meeting. It maps existing 2°C relevant criteria used by financial institutions and discusses what 2°C criteria might look like for key investment areas.
Carbon Pricing Carbon market mechanisms in future international cooperation on climate change Jun 2015 - This discussion paper provides an overview of the development of the international carbon market mechanisms and emerging domestic carbon pricing systems, and lays out three distinct but potentially complementary options for market mechanisms in a future climate change agreement. Options for narrowing the emissions gap before 2020 using market mechanisms are also explored.
CDM evaluation Analysing the status quo of CDM projects May 2015 - This research conducted by NewClimate Institute and Ecofys on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB), seeks to address major gaps in the current understanding regarding the status of individual CDM projects worldwide, as well as the barriers and means for supporting the continuation of these projects.
enhanced-policy-scenarios Enhanced policy scenarios for major emitting countries May 2015 - Main report – May 2015 Download This report elaborated by PBL, NewClimate Institute, IIASA and Ecofys provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of seven major emitting countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, and the United States) out to 2030, taking into account the emissions trajectories based on current and selected enhanced policies.… Read More
UNEP GAP_cover NewClimate authors Fifth UNEP Emissions Gap Report Dec 2014 - Niklas Höhne and Hanna Fekete are authors of this year’s UNEP Emissions Gap Report which informs governments and the wider community on how far the response to climate change has progressed over the past 12 months.
INDC Guide_Cover Process guidance on INDCs prepared by NewClimate Institute staff Dec 2014 - NewClimate Institute staff prepared the process guidance paper entitled ‘Process guidance for Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)’ for the International Partnership on Mitigation and MRV.
New Climate Institute in Carbon Mechanisms Review Use and build on what you have: Is a bilateral process suited to testing sectoral approaches that are based on the CDM? Nov 2014 - The international carbon market is in a state of transition, moving away from project-based carbon market mechanisms like the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) towards new international mechanisms which have yet to be defined and finalised.
energypolicy Beyond pure offsetting: Assessing options to generate Net-Mitigation-Effects in carbon market mechanisms May 2014 - Carsten Warnecke, Sina Wartmann, Niklas Höhne, Kornelis Blok
This research analysed the question if approaches for carbon market-based mechanisms exist that allow the generation of net emission reductions in host countries while keeping project initiation attractive. We present a criteria-based assessment method and apply it for four generic options in existing mechanisms and derive implications for future mechanism frameworks.
CDI Improving Co-benefits and ‘Triple Win’ Impacts from Climate Action: The Role of Guidance Tools Apr 2014 - Naess, L.O., Hagemann, M., Harvey, B., Urban, F., Hendel-Blackford, S. and Höhne, N.
This CDI Practice Paper addresses the role of tools in supporting interventions to achieve the ‘triple wins’ of adaptation, mitigation and development. Over recent years there has been a proliferation of guidance tools to support adaptation or mitigation, increasingly in a development context, but little work on the role tools play in helping to bridge the gap between these three areas in practice.
energypolicy Are major economies on track to achieve their pledges for 2020? An assessment of domestic climate and energy policies Apr 2014 - Mark Roelfsema, Michel den Elzen, Niklas Höhne, Andries F. Hof, Nadine Braun, Hanna Fekete, Hannes Böttcher, Ruut Brandsma, Julia Larkin
Many of the major greenhouse gas emitting countries have planned and/or implemented domestic mitigation policies, such as carbon taxes, feed-in tariffs, or standards. This study analyses whether the most effective national climate and energy policies are sufficient to stay on track for meeting the emission reduction proposals (pledges) that countries made for 2020.
New Climate Institute - Forum China starts trading carbon Feb 2014 - Christian Ellermann, Constanze Böning
This article explains the nature of the new pilot greenhouse gas emission trading schemes (ETS) in China, as well as the significance of their introduction. By moving towards the allocation of emission rights through market mechanisms, the government is signalling that it is addressing climate change seriously and that it wishes to be compared to Europe and the most progressive regions of North America that have also adopted emissions trading. However, the authors also argue that a transition to a more important role for markets in the area of energy and the environment is still in its very early stages.
clim-policy cover Can CDM monitoring requirements be reduced while maintaining environmental integrity? Jan 2014 - Carsten Warnecke
Recommendations are made for CDM-specific improvements and general structural changes to improve cost-efficiency and reduce uncertainty with relevance to policy developments around future market mechanisms.
clim-policy cover Developments in national climate change mitigation legislation and strategy Oct 2013 - Navroz K. Dubasha, Markus Hagemann, Niklas Höhne & Prabhat Upadhyaya
Presentation of results from a survey of national legislation and strategies to mitigate climate change covering almost all United Nations member states between 2007 and 2012.
iddr-pub Possible Elements of a 2015 Legal Agreement on Climate Change Oct 2013 - Erik Haites, Farhana Yamin, Niklas Höhne
The paper proposes a clear process for regularly updating and strengthening national commitments. The climate regime needs to move out of continuous negotiation and into a framework of continuous implementation. The paper proposes no explicit differentiation of countries. Rather countries would propose nationally determined commitments, guided by the multilaterally agreed phase out goal and the international review. This would maximize participation. The Agreement should also include provisions for recognizing the actions of parties unable to ratify and for deterring egregious cases of free-riding.
clim-policy cover Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies Oct 2013 - Niklas Höhne, Michel den Elzen & Donovan Escalante
Over 40 studies that analyse future GHG emissions allowances or reduction targets for different regions based on a wide range of effort-sharing approaches and long-term concentration stabilization levels are compared. This updates previous work undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
climatic change Countries’ contributions to climate change: effect of accounting for all greenhouse gases, recent trends, basic needs and technological progress Sep 2013 - Michel G. J. den Elzen, Jos G. J. Olivier, Niklas Höhne, Greet Janssens-Maenhout
In the context of recent discussions at the UN climate negotiations we compared several ways of calculating historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and assessed the effect of these different approaches on countries’ relative contributions to cumulative global emissions. Elements not covered before are: (i) including recent historical emissions (2000–2010), (ii) discounting historical emissions to account for technological progress; (iii) deducting emissions for ‘basic needs’; (iv) including projected emissions up to 2020, based on countries’ unconditional reduction proposals for 2020. Our analysis shows that countries’ contributions vary significantly based on the choices made in the calculation