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The “Ambition to Action” (A2A) project provided support to the Argentinian NDC process between March 2017 and December 2019. This report provides a synthesis of the results of three years of supporting governmental and non-governmental constituencies with analytical support for the energy supply sector. At the core of the work were three strands. 1) Scenario analysis to support the understanding of the implication of the long term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. 2) Analysis of socio-economic impacts of the energy transition, especially regarding employment and industrial development...

The objective of this report is to synthesize the analysis and results from analytical and capacity support activities undertaken as part of the “Ambition to Action” (A2A) project in Kenya between March 2017 and December 2019. The insights aim to inform policy planning in the Kenyan electricity sector and to feed into the discussions around more ambitious climate targets for successive NDCs, aligned with the country’s sustainable development agenda, and the long-term strategy. Conclusions: The synthesis report focuses on the electricity sector, reflecting the sector’s importance for the Kenyan...

Based on experiences in several countries, this paper formulates six key lessons learnt for the assessment of sustainable development impacts and their integration into climate policy making. The lessons focus on technical as well as political aspects and include recommendations for future work in this area to support ambition raising and sustainable development through robust evidence. Conclusions:

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement provides the framework for a new generation of carbon markets in a context where all countries are supposed to formulate and implement ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions towards a temperature target and ratchet their contribution on a regular basis. With the final rules for Article 6 being an issue of ongoing negotiation, virtual pilots can help contribute to the discussion regarding rulemaking for Article 6 and inform new ways to cooperate. NewClimate Institute has identified the installation of ground source heat pumps in Mongolia as a promising...

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement provides the framework for a new generation of carbon markets in a context where all countries are supposed to formulate and implement ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions towards a temperature target and ratchet their contribution on a regular basis. With the final rules for Article 6 being an issue of ongoing negotiation, virtual pilots can help contribute to the discussion regarding rulemaking for Article 6 and inform new ways to cooperate. NewClimate Institute has identified the construction of Net-Zero Energy Buildings in Colombia as a promising...

This paper discusses ways to identify investments that can be accounted as low-carbon activities. The focus is on the EU Taxonomy, as in the near future it will have to be assessed to what extent this emerging tool can be useful for implementation of the climate finance landscape methodology. Subsequently, we present the added value of linking countries’ climate strategies with investment landscapes. This study offers further recommendations regarding the solutions that help to reduce the gap between current financial structures and the objectives of the national low-emission transition...

This paper assesses whether and how national and multinational credit purchase facilities have supported Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects that are vulnerable to the risk of discontinuing GHG abatement. Improving the understanding of the impact that the credit purchase facilities have had in supporting the continuation of emission reductions for vulnerable CDM projects can inform the available options for their further support. Key findings: Although the maximum potential CER supply from existing CDM projects in the 2013–2020 period is 4.65 billion CERs, we estimated that the...

Nearly all the world’s governments have prepared and submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), setting out their climate pledges under the 2015 Paris Agreement. These NDCs are to be regularly updated, and many countries are expected to submit a new NDC in 2020. While several studies have assessed the content and potential impacts of the NDCs, this article focusses on the preparatory process and asks the question: under what conditions can countries be expected to develop NDCs that are sufficiently ambitious to contribute to fulfilling the Paris Agreement goals? For some...

This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 25 major emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The report concludes that 12 out of the 25 countries and regions analysed are not on track to achieve the NDC targets they have set for themselves. This report updates the 2018 report, and...

In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker presents the global temperature update and shares key insights from the updated assessments. Under current pledges, the world will warm by 2.8°C by the end of the century, close to twice the limit they agreed in Paris. Governments are even further from the Paris temperature limit in terms of their real-world action, which would see the temperature rise by 3°C. An ‘optimistic’ take on real-world action including additional action that governments are planning still only limits warming to 2.8°C. Warming estimates have fallen by 0.1-0.2°C compared to...

Developed by NewClimate Institute, Germanwatch and CAN, the index ties in with the global Climate Change Performance Index by Germanwatch, a rating of the 58 largest emitters of GHG emissions globally that has been published annually since 2006. Foreword: Informing the process of raising climate ambition Published annually since 2005, the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) is an independent monitoring tool for tracking countries’ climate protection performance. It aims to enhance transparency in international climate politics and enables comparison of climate protection efforts and...

The NDC Update Report tracks the progress on the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement. The theme of this report is the role of long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LTSs) in achieving the Paris Agreement goal. This report argues for the importance of developing long-term (sector) strategies to determine the highest possible ambition for the coming NDC update (until 2030) and to signal a clear path for future NDC ambition raising (towards net-zero in 2050). Governments can use the NDC update to signal that indeed the highest...

This report shows the potential distribution of the emissions reduction efforts between different Parties based on different approaches and presents an in-depth assessment of the circumstances influencing the (over-) achievement of the currently suggested emissions reduction goals. The analysis focuses on the following countries: Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Japan and the United States. Main findings: Keeping global warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, as stipulated in the Paris Agreement, requires accelerated efforts to reduce...

This report shows national GHG emissions reductions for 2030 and 2050 that are consistent with the Paris Agreements’ long-term temperature goal, both based on fairness and cost-effectiveness approaches. The range of fair shares was derived from an evaluation of a broad spectrum of fairness-based approaches by the Climate Action Tracker. The cost-effective reduction shares are based on recent marginal abatement cost curves, which were used to derive globally cost-effective national pathways. Main findings: In the Paris Agreement, which came into force in November 2016, the Parties to the United...

This summary report creates a framework to evaluate if a GST is successful and formulates recommendations for the design of the GST process. Please note that this is the executive summary of the full report that was published in advance to already feed into the negotiations at COP25. The main document will be provided subsequently. Key findings: The Paris Agreement combines collective goals with individual countries’ contributions. This hybrid approach does not guarantee that the individual contributions add up to what is required to meet the collective goals. The Paris Agreement therefore...