The world is not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C and meet the Paris Agreement goals. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) estimates that under current policies, the world will exceed 1.5°C of warming around 2035, 2°C around 2053, and 3.2°C by the end of the century. If governments fully achieve the emissions cuts they have committed to, warming is likely to rise to 2.9°C – almost twice the 1.5°C limit they agreed in Paris. Under both of these scenarios, there is a 10% chance of exceeding 4°C by the end of the century - and even up to a 25% chance based on the higher end of the current policies...

This report is the second global analysis of local and regional government and corporate climate contributions, updating “Global Climate Action from Cities, Regions, and Companies” launched at the 2018 Global Climate Action Summit. The 2018 report established the strong potential of subnational and non-state actors to help avoid climate change. This year, we aim to inform the September 2019 UN Climate Action Summit on how mitigation by cities, regions and companies could help national governments boost their ambition beyond their current targets, to come in line with the Paris Agreement’s...

The ambition call provides concrete recommendations for the European Union for immediate climate action in response to the UN Secretary-General’s request for countries to: 1) present concrete, realistic plans that are compatible with the latest IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C, 2) enhance their NDCs by 2020 and 3) reduce GHG emissions by 45% over the next decade, and to net zero by 2050. Recommendations for other countries can be found on the Climate Transparency website. Abstract: The three recommended actions for the European Union are: Adopt goal of net-zero greenhouse gas...

This document presents an overview of climate and energy policies mostly adopted between July 2018 and May 2019 in 25 countries and regions. The policy information compiled by NewClimate Institute, PBL and IIASA in this document supplements the December 2018 report on the projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under currently implemented policies and mitigation commitments (Kuramochi et al., 2018). Key findings: This document provides an overview of about 50 policies that were adopted or under development between July 2018 and May 2019 in 25 selected countries and that may have significant...

This case study presents the potential impact of lower battery and renewable energy costs projections in Canada's NDC emissions target. Main findings The costs for renewable electricity generation and electric vehicles have dropped since the NDCs were developed, and future cost projections also decreased as a result. Wachsmuth and Anatolitis (2018) suggest a simple method to estimate increased RE capacities and EV penetration resulting from these cost decreases. The method assumes that lower battery costs lead to a higher market uptake of EVs and that the savings from decreased RE capacity...

Diese Kurzanalyse erarbeitet mögliche Pfade, die Deutschland anstreben sollte, um mit den Zielen des Pariser Abkommens kompatibel zu sein, und setzt diese in ein Verhältnis zu den derzeitigen nationalen Minderungszielen. Zusammenfassung Das 2015 verabschiedete Klimaschutzabkommen von Paris hat das Ziel, den globalen Temperaturanstieg auf deutlich unter 2°C, wenn möglich auf 1,5°C zu begrenzen und dazu die globalen Treibhausgasemissionen in der zweiten Hälfte des Jahrhunderts auf netto null zu senken. Diese Formulierung geht weit über die vorherigen internationalen politischen Vereinbarungen...

This short analysis develops possible pathways that Germany should pursue to be compatible with the Paris Agreement, and compares those pathways to current national mitigation goals. Note: The document is written in German, but contains an English summary. Summary The Paris Agreement on Climate Change signed in 2015 aims to limit global temperature rise well below 2°C, to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C and to reach global net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the second half of the century. This wording goes a long way from previous international political agreements. Countries’...

Diese Kurzanalyse beschreibt die Größenordnung einer möglichen monetären Verpflichtung der deutschen Bundesregierung, falls die Minderungsziele für Treibhausgasemissionen im Verkehrssektor bis 2030 nicht eingehalten werden. Zusammenfassung der Ergebnisse: Das Verfehlen des deutschen Treibhausgasemissionsziels im Verkehrssektors zwischen 2021 und 2030 könnte zu Zahlungen in der Höhe von 3 bis 36 Milliarden € führen. Deutschland hat sich verpflichtet, nationale Treibhausgasemissionen bis 2030 um 55% gegenüber 1990 zu reduzieren. Innerhalb der EU hat sich Deutschland bindend verpflichtet, die...

In this policy brief, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and NewClimate Institute assess 24 practical and realistic actions to implement between now and 2030 as key elements to cut greenhouse (GHG) emissions significantly by 2030. They include such actions as deploying more renewable energy, transitioning away from coal, boosting energy efficiency, accelerating electric vehicle deployment, and ending deforestation. Main findings: The world can get on a 2℃ pathway by 2030 with “On Track” and “Scale Up” actions The implementation of just 19 of these actions can put the world on track...

The Plataforma Escenarios Energéticos Argentina 2040 initiative developed different scenarios for the future of the energy sector in Argentina. NewClimate was asked to write a comment on the Paris compatibility of the scenarios. Content: In the context of the A2A project, NewClimate Institute worked closely together with the Plataforma Escenarios Energéticos Argentina 2040, an initiative launched in 2011 with the objective to generate plural public debate on Argentina's energy future. The dialogue platform offers technical support and input to decision making processes and aims to support the...

Non-state and subnational climate actors have become central to global climate change governance. Quantitatively assessing climate mitigation undertaken by these entities is critical to understand the credibility of this trend. In this Perspective, we make recommendations regarding five main areas of research and methodological development related to evaluating nonstate and subnational climate actions: defining clear boundaries and terminology; use of common methodologies to aggregate and assess non-state and subnational contributions; systematically dealing with issues of overlap; estimating...

This study compares projected GHG emissions in the G20 economies under current climate policies to those under the GHG targets outlined in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). It is based on an assessment of official governmental estimates and independent national and global studies. Findings: Highlights: Almost all G20 members are making progress in implementing climate policies. Eight G20 members are on track to meet their unconditional NDC targets. The other G20 members require enhanced policies to achieve their NDC targets. For many G20 members emissions continue to increase...

In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker's (CAT) estimate of the total warming of the aggregate effect of Paris Agreement commitments and of real-world policy show little change. If all governments achieved their Paris Agreement commitments the world will likely warm 3.0°C—twice the 1.5°C limit they agreed in Paris. Projections Underneath the lack of progress at the global level, however, the CAT has detected real movement in a number of countries which, if extended, could bend the global emissions curve downward. Of the 32 countries the Climate Action Tracker follows, no government has...

Developed by NewClimate Institute, Germanwatch and CAN, the index ties in with the global Climate Change Performance Index by Germanwatch, a rating of the 58 largest emitters of GHG emissions globally that has been published annually since 2006. Description: Three years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, global climate action is not yet sufficient to limit global warming to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. In order to achieve the Paris targets, more ambitious climate action is needed. In the context of the newly released special report Global Warming of 1...

This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 25 major emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The report concludes that 16 out of the 25 countries and regions analysed are not on track to achieve the NDC targets they have set for themselves. This report updates the 2017 report...

The study analyses the country background, emissions trends, ongoing activities and barriers relating to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Peru under the UNFCCC. A special emphasis is laid on further mitigation potentials in the fields of renewable energy in the electricity generation mix, the transport sector – especially the increase the share of electric vehicles by 2030, and tackling deforestation. All reports in this series: Colombia – Ethiopia – Georgia – Indonesia – Islamic Republic of Iran – Kenya – Morocco – Peru – Republic of Marshall Islands –...

The study analyses the country background, emissions trends, ongoing activities and barriers relating to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Morocco under the UNFCCC. A special emphasis is laid on further mitigation potentials in the fields of urban environment, the mineral sector and the transport sector. A chapter is dedicated to the relevance and perspectives of coal use. All reports in this series: Colombia – Ethiopia – Georgia – Indonesia – Islamic Republic of Iran – Kenya – Morocco – Peru – Republic of Marshall Islands – Viet Nam

The study analyses the country background, emissions trends, ongoing activities and barriers relating to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of the Islamic Republic of Iran under the UNFCCC. A special emphasis is laid on further mitigation potentials in the fields of demand-side efficiency through energy-price reform, upstream oil and gas efficiency (with an emphasis on gas flaring) and a sustainable energy mix (with an emphasis on renewable energies). All reports in this series: Colombia – Ethiopia – Georgia – Indonesia – Islamic Republic of Iran – Kenya –...