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This is the twelfth edition of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report. It assesses the gap between estimated future global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions if countries implement their climate mitigation pledges and the global emission levels from least-cost pathways that are aligned with achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” has become known as the ‘emissions gap’. The report also examines further areas that are highly relevant for bridging the gap: updated NDCs and Net...

This article published in "Nature Climate Change" analyses the recent wave of national net zero targets showing that there is significant momentum which could bring the temperature limit of the Paris Agreement within reach. Summary: A total of 131 countries are discussing, have announced, or have adopted net zero targets, covering 72% of global emissions. National net zero emission targets could, if fully implemented, substantially lower projected temperature increase compared to currently implemented policies (2.9–3.2 °C) or pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement (2.4–2.9 °C). While being a...

In these briefings, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) introduces its new rating methodology, which now rates more elements than before – mitigation targets in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), policies and action, and climate finance. We’ve also added a methodology for assessing net zero targets. These briefings provides an overview of the development in climate action over the last year and illustrates the new CAT assessment of the countries we analyse, based on our updated method. Summary Code red: The new IPCC report on climate science has reinforced the absolute urgency of closing...

As part of the Paris Agreement, countries are mandated to update and enhance their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years — increasing their ambition with every cycle. The first round of NDCs were submitted starting in 2015 as intended nationally determined contributions and countries have submitted or are finalizing their updates for the new cycle in 2020/2021. The purpose of this report was to develop a methodology to systematically assess the design of NDCs and to apply it to 20 NDCs. Main findings: While there are several tools that analyze NDCs, they are comprehensive...

We assessed whether and to what extent the provision of technical assistance can help to transform the finance sector, using the example of support provided in the context of green bonds in China and Kenya. Main findings: In China, the government enacted a number of financial sector reforms to ease green finance flows, including green bond regulations. Technical assistance played a key role in supporting the establishment of China’s green bond market. In Kenya, the Kenya Bankers Association, together with the Nairobi Securities Exchange and international donors launched a Green Bond Programme...

This report assesses options for the effective implementation of sustainable development impact assessment, in the context of climate change mitigation mechanisms such as those of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. To ensure that these mechanisms contribute to sustainable development in the host country, it is necessary to measure this effect. The results of the project show how and which indicators at project level can be used in a targeted manner for monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV). In this way, tools are made available to decision-makers and project developers in voluntary and...

This report analyses how the role of sustainable development can be strengthened in the process of further designing the mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The paper reflects on the experience with sustainable development in past and current market mechanisms and describes to what extent countries agreed on sustainable development issues in multilateral instruments and institutions outside the UNFCCC. Based on the current negotiating draft texts (SBSTA 50 from June 2019, as well as CMA2 from December 2019), recommendations are put forward on how to anchor sustainable...

The recent wave of net zero targets has put the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C within striking distance. In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has calculated that global warming by 2100 could be as low as 2.1°C as a result of all the net zero pledges announced as of November 2020. Included in our new modelling is the announcement by China in September 2020 that it intends to reach carbon neutrality before 2060, which reduces the CAT end of century warming estimate by 0.2 to 0.3°C alone. Assuming carbon neutrality in the USA by 2050, as proposed by President-Elect Biden, would reduce...

The end of 2020 marks a fundamental change in the global governance of greenhouse gas emissions with the shift from the Kyoto Protocol era to that of the Paris Agreement. This has important implications for the future role and the feasible models of the voluntary carbon market. In this report – commissioned by the German Emission Trading Authority (DEHSt) at the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) – we analyse a number of options and offer key recommendations on the future role for voluntary carbon markets after 2020. Main findings: A critical focus of our analysis is whether and how “double...

This report analyses the momentum of targets for net-zero emissions across companies, cities and regions worldwide. We seek to unravel the ambiguity of net-zero targets to better enable the identification of truly ambitious actors and enhance support towards them. We offer recommendations for increasing target transparency with the aim of achieving greater accountability and ambition. Main Findings: 1. Net zero momentum is accelerating: The number of net-zero pledges from cities regions and companies has roughly doubled in less than a year since late 2019 As of October 2020, actors with net...

Financial institution’s climate-related investment targets have rapidly grown in recent years. In this report, we provide insights into the magnitude and ambition of these targets, and investigate their relationship with GHG emissions in the real economy. Specifically, this report maps out the financial sector’s climate-related investment targets against a range of indicators, such as monetary investments in ‘green’ projects, and required ‘green’ investments and GHG emission reductions. It thereby considers both climate-related investment pledges made by individual financial institutions as...

A growing number of subnational and corporate actors set net-zero emissions targets. These include some of the world’s largest companies, and hundreds of cities and regions around the world. This paper provides a summary of the momentum of target setting among these subnational and corporate actors. Main Findings: The shift towards net-zero greenhouse gas emission pathways is accelerating. An increasing number of subnational and corporate actors are setting net-zero emission targets. These encompass: 823 cities and 101 regions, which represent more than 828 million people across every...

A growing number of countries and companies are setting climate neutrality and net-zero targets. Many countries’ and companies’ efforts towards climate neutrality play a positive role contributing to the fight against climate change and reducing global emissions. However, some of these commitments only obscure the actual impact and ambition of actual climate efforts. In order to enable citizens, investors, consumers and other stakeholders to make an informed judgement, it is crucial that countries and companies are transparent about what exactly their target covers and how they intend to reach...

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement provides the framework for a new generation of carbon markets in a context where all countries are supposed to formulate and implement ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions towards a temperature target and ratchet their contribution on a regular basis. With the final rules for Article 6 being an issue of ongoing negotiation, virtual pilots can help contribute to the discussion regarding rulemaking for Article 6 and inform new ways to cooperate. NewClimate Institute has identified the installation of ground source heat pumps in Mongolia as a promising...

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement provides the framework for a new generation of carbon markets in a context where all countries are supposed to formulate and implement ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions towards a temperature target and ratchet their contribution on a regular basis. With the final rules for Article 6 being an issue of ongoing negotiation, virtual pilots can help contribute to the discussion regarding rulemaking for Article 6 and inform new ways to cooperate. NewClimate Institute has identified the construction of Net-Zero Energy Buildings in Colombia as a promising...