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This analysis shows that tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency and cutting methane by 2030 and beyond would cut warming rate by a third in ten years, and halve it by 2040.

Ten years after the Paris Agreement, Climate Action Tracker’s warming projections show little to no measurable progress for the fourth consecutive year.

In this year’s update, we modelled GHG emissions through 2035 based on countries’ policies as of July 2025 and compared these emissions to countries’ current NDC targets as of mid-October 2025 to evaluate whether countries are on track to meet them.

This is the 2025 edition of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report, which tracks progress in limiting global warming well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C in line with the Paris Agreement.

To support governments in raising ambition ahead of COP30, the CAT has produced seven country-focused reports: six on major emitters that have not yet submitted updated NDCs (China, India, the European Union, Indonesia, South Africa, and Australia) and one on the COP30 host country, Brazil

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, our annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

In our 2024 update report, we modelled greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions towards 2030 based on countries’ policies as of July 2024 and compared these emissions to countries’ current NDC targets to evaluate whether countries are on track to meet them.

Despite government promises, warming projections have not improved since Glasgow two years ago, amid worsening climate impacts, the Climate Action Tracker finds in a their latest briefing.

The 28th Conference of Parties of the UNFCCC takes place from 30 November - 12 December 2023. NewClimate Institute will be present in Dubai participating in multiple events and releasing new analyses.