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The independent Global Stocktake (iGST) seeks to increase the accuracy, transparency, accountability, and relevance of the official Global Stocktake benchmarking process by bringing together independent researchers and advocates. In this paper, build on previous work, we aim to identify knowledge gaps as well as potential areas of focus for a successful GST to take place. Executive summary: The Paris Agreement includes a cycle of ambition. Each five years, starting in 2023, a Global Stocktake (GST) analyses the global situation and provides information for countries to prepare updated...

A growing number of countries have started to set longer-term climate targets and develop decarbonisation strategies in addition to their shorter-term commitments under the Paris Agreement. Depending on the country, offsets in the form of emission reductions or emission removals from abroad play various roles in how countries sketch out future planning. In the context of constantly ratcheted up ambition of national climate efforts under the Paris Agreement however, the role that such offsets can play requires a shift from the current practice of offsetting continued emissions trends to rapidly...

This is the tenth edition of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report. It provides the latest assessment of scientific studies on current and estimated future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and compares these with the emission levels permissible for the world to progress on a least-cost pathway to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” has become known as the ‘emissions gap’. NewClimate Institute staff ( Takeshi Kuramochi, Frederic Hans, Niklas Höhne, Maria Jose de Villafranca, Leonardo...

This report synthesises available analyses on the role and potential of mini-grids in Kenya and explores how this technology can help the country attain its goal of universal electrification by 2022 and also contribute to the achievement of other related development objectives. Executive summary: Even with the global electrification rate rising from 83% in 2010 to 89% in 2017, about 573 million people still lack adequate access to electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 calls for action to “ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern...

This study aims at supporting decision making in the electricity sector in Kenya by comparing geothermal and coal as two main power generation technologies, and the impact of developing these technologies on generation costs, affordability of electricity, and overall flexibility and reliability of electricity supply. Executive summary: Kenya is one of the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, with high anticipated economic growth rates and ambitious flagship infrastructure projects. However, recent electricity demand forecasts were considerably decreased. Both in the scenarios of...

The International Civil Aviation Organisation is in the process of finalising the design of a scheme – the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) – to address carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation. In this discussion paper we estimate the potential supply of carbon offset credits to meet demand from international aviation under CORSIA under a number of different scenarios which include different types of restrictions imposed on the eligibility of offset credits. Our analysis considers supply from the four largest offsetting programmes: the...

This report explores how various political and financial measures could help to "de-risk" renewables investment using onshore wind investments in Serbia and Greece as case examples. Introduction: The financing costs for renewable energies in Southeast Europe have been significantly higher than for conventional power plants. Additionally, high risk premiums hamper the expansion of wind and solar power plants in the region. This study shows which political and financial de-risking measures can reduce costs of renewable energy projects in South East Europe. Most South East European countries rely...

This paper develops a qualitative assessment framework that allows policy makers to understand the complexity of power sector transformation and to analyse their country’s position in the transformation process, including key challenges impacting the integration of vRES and examples for technically feasible solutions. Introduction: The global energy sector is undergoing a rapid and radical transition in the way energy is produced, distributed and consumed, a shift is motivated by the urgency to ensure secure energy supply, achieve sustainable development and limit climate change. Around two...

Ahead of the UN Climate Action Summit 2019, UNEP with support of NewClimate Institute has released an advance chapter of the flagship 2019 Emissions Gap Report, which notes that G20 members, who account for around 80 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, are not yet taking on transformative climate commitments at the breadth and scale necessary. The chapter titled “Bridging the Gap: Enhancing Mitigation Ambition and Action at G20 Level and Globally” notes that “the majority of G20 countries are not yet taking on transformative climate commitments at the necessary scale—if this does not...

This study assesses the EU's 2050 target, i.e. halving global emissions by 2050 to be in line with 2°C, in today's setting to evaluate if the target, which was set ten years ago, is still appropriate and/or sufficient. It offers recommendations for the EU to aim for more ambitious targets. Key findings: The EU’s 2050 greenhouse gas reduction target of 80% to 95% from 1990 levels adopted 10 years ago is outdated as its basis has changed substantially. The global goal agreed in Paris in 2015 is more ambitious and pathways to that goal are now steeper not only because of the more ambitious goal...

The world is not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C and meet the Paris Agreement goals. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) estimates that under current policies, the world will exceed 1.5°C of warming around 2035, 2°C around 2053, and 3.2°C by the end of the century. If governments fully achieve the emissions cuts they have committed to, warming is likely to rise to 2.9°C – almost twice the 1.5°C limit they agreed in Paris. Under both of these scenarios, there is a 10% chance of exceeding 4°C by the end of the century - and even up to a 25% chance based on the higher end of the current policies...

This report is the second global analysis of local and regional government and corporate climate contributions, updating “Global Climate Action from Cities, Regions, and Companies” launched at the 2018 Global Climate Action Summit. The 2018 report established the strong potential of subnational and non-state actors to help avoid climate change. This year, we aim to inform the September 2019 UN Climate Action Summit on how mitigation by cities, regions and companies could help national governments boost their ambition beyond their current targets, to come in line with the Paris Agreement’s...

The ambition call provides concrete recommendations for the European Union for immediate climate action in response to the UN Secretary-General’s request for countries to: 1) present concrete, realistic plans that are compatible with the latest IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C, 2) enhance their NDCs by 2020 and 3) reduce GHG emissions by 45% over the next decade, and to net zero by 2050. Recommendations for other countries can be found on the Climate Transparency website. Abstract: The three recommended actions for the European Union are: Adopt goal of net-zero greenhouse gas...

The Paris Agreement's Article 6 establishes a new framework for using international car-bon market mechanisms. The primary objective of the approaches under Article 6 is to facilitate voluntary cooperation between Parties, to allow for higher ambition and to pro-mote sustainable development and environmental integrity. Moreover, Article 6.4 establishes the concept of delivering an "overall mitigation in global emissions" (OMGE). This paper addresses questions that have been raised in relation to OMGE. It draws on a study conducted by Lambert Schneider and NewClimate Institute.

The objective of this guidance document is to provide Contracting Parties of the Energy Community with a concise and simple guidance on how they could consolidate their multiple climate change and energy planning processes and international obligations into one single process, ensuring efficiency and alignment. Introduction: Energy Community Contracting Parties –Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo*, North Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia and Ukraine– have committed to monitoring and reporting in the areas of renewables, energy efficiency, and greenhouse gas emissions by...