As the next cycle of NDCs is approaching, with submissions of updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) expected in early 2025, pressure is mounting to close the ambition gap to keep global warming to 1.5°C. In this context, non-CO2 emissions are critical. Until now they have generally been given less attention than CO2 emissions in existing NDCs, despite the fact that they are responsible for about a quarter of global GHG emissions today. The current lack of ambition to reduce non-CO2 emissions has been found to put the achievement of the Paris Agreement goals at serious risk. This brief focuses on the role of non-CO2 emissions (methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases) in the context of NDC ambition, with a specific focus on China.
Non-CO2 gases have a shorter lifespan than CO2, but they trap more heat in the atmosphere due to their higher global warming potentials. At the sectoral level, agriculture is the most significant non-CO2 emitting sector, followed by energy and industrial processes. At the global level, the countries with the largest projected non-CO2 emissions in 2030 are China, the USA, Russia, India, and Brazil. None of these countries so far, except the USA, has included specific mentions or targets for non-CO2 emissions in their NDC, and only consider them as part of their overall GHG emissions targets.
While non-CO2 targets are relatively well covered in overall GHG emission reduction targets of existing NDCs, few parties specify gas-specific targets, let alone quantitative ones. As of November 2023, 20% of NDCs included quantitative methane targets, while 60% included some form of qualitative measure. About 39% of parties included mitigation options for reducing methane and nitrous oxide emissions, but quantitative nitrous oxide reduction targets are largely missing. For hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), only 27% of NDCs specify mitigation measures, and quantitative targets here are also few.
Despite these gaps, a number of good practice examples can be highlighted. For instance, the NDC of Côte d’Ivoire includes several quantitative emission reduction targets for methane: one overall target and three sector-specific ones. Colombia’s NDC includes quantitative targets to mitigate emissions from the agriculture sector, thus targeting nitrous oxide emissions. For fluorinated gases, most NDCs highlight HFCs, but Japan’s specifies quantitative targets for the full spectrum of fluorinated gases. In addition, several NDCs - such as those of Canada, Côte d’Ivoire, Mexico, and Türkiye - adopt the targets of the Kigali Amendment directly.
Improved coverage of non-CO2 gases in NDCs over time has partly been driven by the establishment of international initiatives seeking to enhance ambition. These efforts are increasingly visible in NDCs. Examples of such initiatives are the Global Methane Pledge, the Kigali amendment on HFCs, and the Nitric Acid Climate Action Group. Many parties adopt targets resulting from these initiatives as official targets in their NDCs. Among G20 countries, there is an overwhelmingly high commitment to the Kigali Amendment with only one country (Saudi Arabia) that has not yet signed onto it. Four G20 countries (China, India, Russia, and Türkiye) did not yet become members of the Global Methane Pledge, while the Nitric Acid Climate Action Group has the smallest G20 support with only three (Argentina, Indonesia, and Mexico) signatories.
As for the case of China, its current NDC only covers CO2, even though non-CO2 gases make up 18% of total national GHG emissions. Nevertheless, China has indicated that it will include non-CO2 gases in its updated NDC. And what is more, it has developed policies relevant for non-CO2 mitigation in recent years, which mainly focus on methane emissions. The Methane Emissions Control Action Plan was announced in 2023 which specifies sector-specific mitigation measures, even though it lacks quantitative mitigation targets. In addition to that, the “Sunnylands statement” on cooperation between China and the USA, which was issued soon after, includes working groups on methane. The Chinese involvement in international initiatives could also have positive impacts on domestic policy on non-CO2 emissions, such as the Chinese endorsement of the hydrogen sector under the Glasgow Breakthrough Agenda.
The accelerating climate crisis makes the next iteration of NDCs critical to keep the goals of the Paris Agreement within reach. Setting ambitious 2035 targets as well as updated and enhanced 2030 targets will be crucial in light of the shrinking global carbon budget for the 1.5°C limit. There are several ways in which NDC ambition could be enhanced. So far, only one party has signalled that they are intending to increase their ambition with regards to non-CO2 emissions in their next NDC, but recently updated policies and regulations such as roadmaps or strategies could also indicate that more ambitious updates are to be expected. Beyond the inclusion of non-CO2 gases in the overall GHG emission reduction target, parties can enhance NDC ambition through the development and inclusion of gas and sector-specific targets, identification and description of mitigation measures linked to those targets, and the estimation of correlated emission reduction contributions.
China together with India are the only two G20 countries that do not include non-CO2 gases in their current NDCs. Given the large share (30%) of global GHG emissions originating from China, its updated NDC and 2035 targets will greatly impact the future of the global climate. As such, the upcoming round of NDC updates provides an opportunity for China to steer global climate action closer to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, and to drive collective ambition globally. China’s confirmation to include all GHGs in its next NDC is a welcome step in that direction.
There are several ways in which China could improve ambition, transparency, and clarity of this addition in its updated NDC. Firstly, China could link to sectoral strategies, such as the steel sector decarbonization strategy, to mitigate correlated non-CO2 emissions. Secondly, it can build on already existing policy, such as the Methane Emissions Control Action Plan. Lastly, China can build on international initiatives, for instance the Kigali Amendment, which it already has ratified.
