The energy crisis triggered by the US–Israel war on Iran has once again placed energy security at the centre of geopolitical tensions. It marks the third major shock to the global energy system since 2020, following the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and again exposes the vulnerabilities of fossil fuel-dependent energy systems.

This crisis, however, unfolds under markedly different conditions. During the previous shocks, simultaneous support for both renewable and fossil fuel energy largely cancelled each other out, stabilising emissions but delivering little structural progress. 

Today, clean energy technologies have matured, electrification is accelerating, and renewable energy deployment is growing exponentially, while fossil fuel expansion remains comparatively slow and constrained. This has fundamentally changed the strategic context in which governments make energy policy decisions. 

Yet despite these shifts, most governments' immediate responses remain poorly aligned with the global energy transition, despite the recent and exponential growth of renewables and electrification.

In this briefing, we assess the responses of 40 countries to the energy crisis and examine whether these measures support or hinder progress towards decarbonisation.

Key takeaways:

• Immediate responses to the energy crisis provide a mixed picture for decarbonisation. Most governments continue to rely on fuel subsidies, tax cuts and price caps that provide short-term relief but entrench fossil fuel dependence. Only a minority have chosen to provide targeted support for vulnerable households and critical sectors while preserving incentives for energy efficiency, electrification and clean energy uptake.
• Countries that accelerated the energy transition are proving less vulnerable. Countries that expanded renewables, electrification and grid infrastructure are proving less vulnerable to price shocks and supply disruptions. While immediate relief remains important for households and businesses facing higher energy costs, structural reforms have proven far more effective in strengthening long-term resilience.
• The Global Stocktake provides the clearest roadmap out of this crisis. The Global Stocktake (GST-1) goals provide the strongest available framework for aligning immediate crisis responses with long-term energy security, as they link short term policy choices to the structural reforms required to transition away from fossil fuels.