With this summer marking the hottest on record and following a year where the global annual temperature exceeded 1.5˚C, the urgency for accelerated and more effective climate action has never been clearer. As we approach COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, critical discussions around the most pressing climate topics – from climate finance, corporate accountability in climate action to national climate targets for 2035 – are laying the groundwork for the UN’s main climate conference.
As the countdown to COP29 continues, Climate Week NYC, the largest annual climate event of its kind, will take place from September 22-29. This year’s event will host over 600 events and activities across New York City, bringing together leaders from governments, businesses and civil society. Organised by the international non-profit Climate Group, the event will coincide with the 2024 United Nations General Assembly, turning the city into the centre stage for pivotal climate discussions.
This year’s Climate Week comes at a critical juncture. New rules and targets are being proposed to raise – or, in certain cases, diminish – the ambition for climate action among governments and non-government actors, including corporations. Business leaders will share their latest innovations and strategies for transitioning to net zero under heightened scrutiny of the integrity of these commitments. Eyes will also be on potential announcements from countries preparing to submit their next cycle of national climate targets, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), ahead of the early 2025 deadline.
From NewClimate Institute, Silke Mooldijk, Sarah Jackson, Thomas Day and Prof. Dr. Niklas Höhne will participate in the Climate Week NYC, engaging in events and informing policy consultations. In this blog post, our experts share key insights on what must be achieved to speed up climate progress, drawing from our latest projects and reports.
Corporate target setting should champion immediate emissions reduction, ruling out offsetting
This year’s Climate Week comes amid growing controversy over attempts to loosen offsetting rules for corporate emissions, primarily by allowing companies to use carbon credits to meet their climate targets. Civil society organisations have voiced concerns that this would undermine genuine emissions reductions.
One of the latest developments is the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative (VCMI)’s revised proposal for a Scope 3 Claim. The proposal suggests that companies could purchase carbon credits for up to 24% of their target scope 3 emission levels until 2038 to address the “emissions gap” between their target trajectories and their actual emissions. The actual implications of this allowance are more complex than the 24% figure suggests due to various technicalities in defining the target trajectory. Essentially, this means that many companies with emission reduction commitments could continue to increase their emissions over the next years while still being eligible for the VCMI claim.
According to NewClimate’s analysis, VCMI’s proposal violates the principle that companies should not be able to achieve their short- and medium-term targets through offsetting. The Scope 3 Claim would likely undermine already insufficient corporate 2030 targets. It would facilitate companies in delaying decarbonisation measures. And it would disadvantage frontrunner companies making genuine climate efforts, while potentially benefiting laggards by enabling them to inflate their climate claims.
“We are in the most critical period of the decade for setting the rules of the game for corporate climate action and accountability,” said NewClimate expert Thomas Day. “Proposals under various terminologies to sneak offsetting into corporate climate pledges are outdated and undermine frontrunner companies, several of whom have come out in recent months to reject a U-turn on the issue.”
The regulatory landscape for corporate climate target setting is evolving. The Science-Based Targets Initiative is revising its framework for corporate net-zero targets, while the International Organization for Standardization is developing its first international net-zero standard. Meanwhile, the GHG-Protocol is updating its emissions reporting guidelines for companies.
To align corporate climate targets with climate science, standard-setters have a crucial role to play in guiding companies toward constructive and transparent solutions for decarbonising their value chains. These could include focusing on key emission sources and setting sector-specific transition targets, as proposed in SBTi’s Scope 3 Discussion Paper in July. Allowing companies to offset their emissions would be a major step back.
“Climate Week NYC presents a valuable opportunity to discuss improving target-setting frameworks, such as by enabling companies to prioritise and focus on the key transitions for their sectors,” NewClimate expert Silke Mooldijk said. “Offering unnuanced flexibility mechanisms could simply distract from and delay those transitions.”
“The direction of the SBTi Corporate Net Zero Standard revision is promising, but the VCMI proposal risks undermining this,” she noted.
Governments should strengthen 2030 targets, propose more ambitious 2035 targets
While Climate Week NYC unfolds, world leaders will gather at the UN for the annual General Assembly scheduled for September 10-24. Facing another year of complex global challenges – from climate change to conflicts, they will discuss enhancing international cooperation and accelerating progress towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Against this backdrop, there is growing anticipation for countries to propose more ambitious NDCs for 2035, expected by February next year. These NDCs are crucial for aligning with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5˚C, with countries required to submit them every five years.
More ambitious targets for 2035 are necessary to keep the 1.5°C target within reach. However, without enhancing the current 2030 targets, limiting warming to 1.5°C will not be possible, even if followed by ambitious 2035 targets. Current NDCs with 2030 targets are insufficient – both nationally and globally – and are projected to lead to a temperature increase of 2.5°C, according to our Climate Action Tracker analysis.
The path forward for governments is clear: strengthen the 2030 targets and implement effective policies to achieve them – expanding renewables, setting credible sector-specific plans, and scaling up climate finance, among other measures. These are critical steps towards setting more ambitious 2035 targets and keeping the 1.5°C temperature goal alive.
“International climate action always needs frontrunners to pull others along. Climate Week NYC is the primary opportunity for countries to demonstrate leadership by being the first to present a new national climate target for 2035. The world urgently needs ambitious targets that are in line with the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement,” said Prof. Niklas Höhne, who created the Climate Action Tracker, NewClimate Institute’s flagship project with Climate Analytics.
Governments should integrate renewable targets into new NDCs, increase finance to support just transition
Climate Week NYC will provide a platform for discussions across ten themes, including energy. Given the energy sector is the biggest greenhouse gas emitter, achieving deep emissions reductions in this sector is essential to reach global net zero by 2050 and limit global warming to 1.5ºC. To decarbonise the energy sector, phasing out fossil fuels and transitioning towards renewables is critical. At COP28 last year, the world committed to tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. The first Global Stocktake confirmed the importance of this commitment.
To meet the target of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, wind and solar are among the most promising energy sources due to their advancing technologies and rapidly falling costs, which enable large-scale deployment to meet growing energy demand.
However, current levels of renewable capacity are insufficient. According to a new report by NewClimate Institute and Climate Analytics, which examined a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar energy across 11 countries, including the US and China, wind and solar capacity must increase five-fold by 2030 in these countries to meet the target. These 11 countries together are responsible for over 70% of global wind and solar deployment.
“Wind and solar offer proven, cost-competitive solutions that also fit a range of development priorities,” NewClimate expert Gustavo De Vivero said. “Scaling up wind and solar capacity is a clear choice, but the window for action is narrow and must be reflected in the next round of NDC updates.”
Achieving the tripling of wind and solar globally requires action at both national and global levels. National governments should set roadmaps and specific targets for wind and solar deployment, integrating them into the upcoming 2035 NDCs. Globally, it is crucial to address disparities in renewable expansion rates and finance distribution for clean energy deployment.
Renewable expansion rates vary significantly due to barriers such as high costs and weak policy frameworks, especially in developing countries. These countries often have less installed wind and solar capacity, which requires substantial investment to develop new infrastructure. If these countries are to phase out fossil fuels while managing soaring electricity demand, they need more financial support to boost their renewable efforts.
“Without a fundamental shift in the geographic distribution of renewable energy investments and putting a just transition at the centre of the transformation required, we risk leaving the most vulnerable behind on the path to a carbon-free future,” De Vivero said.
“During Climate Week NYC, civil society and the private sector should emphasise the need to triple renewable energy capacity and unite in urging governments to uphold their global commitments with ambitious targets and policies aligned with 1.5°C-compatible renewable deployment,” he added.
Written by Hyunju (Laeticia) Ock, writer and editor at NewClimate Institute.
Join us for side events at Climate Week NYC, where our experts will share insights from their latest research.
