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Browse publications
Paris alignment of gas?
Publication date 20 Oct 2021

Financial institutions' current investments in gas reflect an underestimation of climate risks, including the extent to which gas value chain investments pose a threat to achieving 1.5°C. This report surveys these risks, outlining the need for much tighter restrictions on lending for all parts of the gas value chain. Key Findings: Rapid and far-reaching decarbonisation of the energy system is essential to achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Of particular importance is the “critical decade” between 2020 and 2030, where emissions need to fall 7.6% every year. Committed emissions...

Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries – Analysis of current climate policies and mitigation commitments: 2021 Update
Publication date 07 Oct 2021

This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 26 major emitting countries and regions up to 2030 under currently implemented policies. The report shows that emissions are projected to remain above 2005 levels in most countries but concludes that 16 out of the 26 countries and regions analysed are on track or close to achieve the NDC targets they have previously set for themselves. Eight are on track to also meet their...

Climate Action Tracker: Exploring new electric vehicle roadmaps for China in a post-COVID-19 era
Publication date 05 Oct 2021

In this report, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) explores several sets of scenarios for the evolution of the passenger vehicle stock in China, in order to inform on emission reduction and electricity demand implications. Summary: China is currently the global leader in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales annually, a position it has held since 2015 when it surpassed the US. The one positive policy priority in China’s COVID-19 recovery focused on transitioning the transport sector towards development of public transport systems and electrified transport. New energy vehicles (NEVs), which...

Green Hydrogen Applications in Mongolia
Publication date 24 Sep 2021

This study investigates the techno-economic potential of green hydrogen production in Mongolia, and its application in three hard-to-abate end-use sectors - namely heavy-duty transport in the mining sector, public transportation in Ulaanbaatar, and decentralised space heating and cooking. Based on the results, the GHG emission reduction potential is estimated, followed by an analysis on potential policy options for the introduction of green hydrogen in the Mongolian context. Main findings: Despite Mongolia’s rich renewable energy resources, some hard-to-abate sectors are technically...

Kenya Power’s Decarbonising the Energy Mix Initiative
Publication date 23 Sep 2021

The scoping study aims to support Kenya Power’s Decarbonise the Energy Mix Initiative that is included in the company’s Strategic Plan 2018-2023 by analysing potential challenges associated with power sector decarbonisation and suitable intervention options to overcome these challenges. Main findings: Kenya has one of the lowest carbon-intensive power systems in the region, mainly due to the high share of dispatchable renewable sources (primarily geothermal and hydro). Together with its abundance of renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, this is one of the greatest assets to...

Working together to achieve the Paris climate goals and sustainable development
Publication date 20 Sep 2021

This study shows how transformative change can bring about sustainable development, prevent climate change from spiralling out of control and address the unavoidable consequences of climate change in a development-friendly manner. Main findings: In view of the multiple crises facing the world, unprecedented efforts are required to achieve resilient, climate-compatible and sustainable development on a global scale. Avoiding unmanageable climate change and managing its unavoidable impacts requires ambitious and coherent action towards the objectives of the Paris Agreement. In this context, the...

Publication in Nature Climate Change: Wave of net zero emission targets opens window to meeting the Paris Agreement
Publication date 16 Sep 2021

This article published in "Nature Climate Change" analyses the recent wave of national net zero targets showing that there is significant momentum which could bring the temperature limit of the Paris Agreement within reach. Summary: A total of 131 countries are discussing, have announced, or have adopted net zero targets, covering 72% of global emissions. National net zero emission targets could, if fully implemented, substantially lower projected temperature increase compared to currently implemented policies (2.9–3.2 °C) or pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement (2.4–2.9 °C). While being a...

Climate Action Tracker Global update: Climate target updates slow as science ramps up need for action
Publication date 15 Sep 2021

In these briefings, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) introduces its new rating methodology, which now rates more elements than before – mitigation targets in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), policies and action, and climate finance. We’ve also added a methodology for assessing net zero targets. These briefings provides an overview of the development in climate action over the last year and illustrates the new CAT assessment of the countries we analyse, based on our updated method. Summary Code red: The new IPCC report on climate science has reinforced the absolute urgency of closing...

National ‘fair shares’ in reducing greenhouse gas emissions within the principled framework of international environmental law
Publication date 09 Sep 2021

International environmental law principles are used to assess indicators of fair share emissions reductions and narrow the range of what is considered a fair share for individual countries. Main Findings: This article tests fairness justifications offered in 168 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the 2015 Paris Agreement against the touchstone of principles of international environmental law. It finds that while many NDCs refer to elements and indicators that are backed by principles of international law in determining fair shares (sustainable development, special circumstances...

Na­tional Cooling Action Plan for Grenada
Publication date 08 Sep 2021

The National Cooling Action Plan (NCAP) shall serve as input to Grenada’s NDC process, by providing quantitative and qualitative analyses on mitigation actions related to space cooling in buildings. Main findings: The NCAP aims to assist Grenada in the achievement of the country’s commitments under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol and the Paris Agreement, and to contribute to the accomplishment of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. At present, buildings are responsible for 54% of total GHG emissions in Grenada and the refrigeration and air conditioning (RAC) sector accounts...

SCREEN - Sustainable development and climate action green recovery screening tool and framework
Publication date 25 Aug 2021

The SCREEN tool and the underlying COVID-19 recovery framework aim to help policymakers to identify and analyse green recovery measures that can effectively cater to the distinct recovery needs and development priorities of developing countries. Main findings: Climate action and COVID-19 recovery in developing countries Since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, multiple organisations have published green recovery frameworks, building on a growing body of research evaluating the effectiveness of different policy archetypes. Green recovery frameworks, and their respective assessment criteria, are...

The Kenyan cooking sector – Opportunities for climate action and sustainable development
Publication date 13 Jul 2021

This study provides new and additional insights on the specific link between residential cooking solutions, climate change, health impacts and associated sustainable development objectives in Kenya. It builds on the 2019 National Cooking Sector Study and uses scenario modelling to present different possible development pathways for the Kenyan residential cooking sector, estimating their respective impact on GHG emissions and human health, and additional analysis on fuel use, energy demand and fuel expenditure as well as deforestation. Main findings: Scenarios Based on five cooking sector...

NDC Design
Publication date 08 Jul 2021

As part of the Paris Agreement, countries are mandated to update and enhance their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years — increasing their ambition with every cycle. The first round of NDCs were submitted starting in 2015 as intended nationally determined contributions and countries have submitted or are finalizing their updates for the new cycle in 2020/2021. The purpose of this report was to develop a methodology to systematically assess the design of NDCs and to apply it to 20 NDCs. Main findings: While there are several tools that analyze NDCs, they are comprehensive...

Aligning agribusiness and the broader food system with the Paris Agreement
Publication date 29 Jun 2021

Achieving the mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement calls for a shift in where and how our food is produced, processed and transported to consumers. At the same time, this shift needs reinforcing with changes in our eating habits and how much food we waste. Development finance has the potential to play an important role in bringing about this change. Main findings: Drawing on sectoral benchmarks for shifts in the food system, we propose a rating system to guide investment decision making by dividing agribusinesses into four categories according to their consistency with mitigation objectives...

Transforming the finance sector with technical assistance
Publication date 24 Jun 2021

We assessed whether and to what extent the provision of technical assistance can help to transform the finance sector, using the example of support provided in the context of green bonds in China and Kenya. Main findings: In China, the government enacted a number of financial sector reforms to ease green finance flows, including green bond regulations. Technical assistance played a key role in supporting the establishment of China’s green bond market. In Kenya, the Kenya Bankers Association, together with the Nairobi Securities Exchange and international donors launched a Green Bond Programme...

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