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The Climate Action Tracker explored a new approach to understanding opportunities for sectoral decarbonisation, using the example of the transport sector in India. To hold global average temperature increase to 1.5°C, global CO2 emissions need to reach net-zero by 2050, with rapid decarbonisation in all sectors. Global transport emissions have continued to steadily increase, with transport emissions accounting for 24 percent of direct CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. In this study we look specifically at how India can decarbonise its transport sector, its fastest-growing source of carbon...

The recent wave of net zero targets has put the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C within striking distance. In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has calculated that global warming by 2100 could be as low as 2.1°C as a result of all the net zero pledges announced as of November 2020. Included in our new modelling is the announcement by China in September 2020 that it intends to reach carbon neutrality before 2060, which reduces the CAT end of century warming estimate by 0.2 to 0.3°C alone. Assuming carbon neutrality in the USA by 2050, as proposed by President-Elect Biden, would reduce...

This paper examines the broad policy frameworks that can support the development and upscaling of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) without diverting attention from ambitious greenhouse gas emissions reductions and, in particular, whether CDR can be supported by offsetting schemes. Setting separate emission reduction and removal targets may be a way to achieve this. The paper was funded by the Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative (C2G), which is an initiative of the Carnegie Council for Ethics and International Affairs. Context and approach: The special report on the 1.5°C temperature limit by...

This summary report creates a framework to evaluate if a GST is successful and formulates recommendations for the design of the GST process. Please note that this is the executive summary of the full report that was published in advance to already feed into the negotiations at COP25. The main document will be provided subsequently. Key findings: The Paris Agreement combines collective goals with individual countries’ contributions. This hybrid approach does not guarantee that the individual contributions add up to what is required to meet the collective goals. The Paris Agreement therefore...

The independent Global Stocktake (iGST) seeks to increase the accuracy, transparency, accountability, and relevance of the official Global Stocktake benchmarking process by bringing together independent researchers and advocates. In this paper, build on previous work, we aim to identify knowledge gaps as well as potential areas of focus for a successful GST to take place. Executive summary: The Paris Agreement includes a cycle of ambition. Each five years, starting in 2023, a Global Stocktake (GST) analyses the global situation and provides information for countries to prepare updated...

Achieving the collective goal of limiting warming to below 2 °C or 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels requires a transition towards a fully decarbonized world. Annual greenhouse gas emissions on such a path in 2025 or 2030 can be allocated to individual countries using a variety of allocation schemes. We reanalyse the IPCC literature allocation database and provide country-level details for three approaches. At this stage, however, it seems utopian to assume that the international community will agree on a single allocation scheme. Here, we investigate an approach that involves a major...