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The study analyses the country background, emissions trends, ongoing activities and barriers relating to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Viet Nam under the UNFCCC. A special emphasis is laid on further mitigation potentials. Fields of mitigation assessed are efficiency, the setting of right incentives for the upscaled deployment of renewables and emissions reductions in the transport sector. The planned increase in coal use – contrary to mitigation ambition in other fields – is assessed in relevance and perspective. All reports in this series: Colombia –...

The study analyses the country background, emissions trends, ongoing activities and barriers relating to the implementation of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Indonesia under the UNFCCC. A special emphasis is laid on further mitigation potentials. Fields of mitigation assessed are land use, land use change and forestry ( LULUCF) governance and monitoring as well as electricity demand and generation. A chapter is dedicated to the ongoing and planned increase in coal use – contrary to mitigation ambition in other fields – including an analysis of the economic role and local...

One of the most fundamental questions surrounding the new Paris Agreement is whether countries’ proposals to reduce GHG emissions after 2020 are equally ambitious, considering differences in circumstances between countries. We review a variety of approaches to assess the ambition of the GHG emission reduction proposals by countries. The approaches are applied illustratively to the mitigation part of the post-2020 climate proposals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) by China, the EU, and the US. The analysis reveals several clear trends, even though the results differ per individual...

The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current...

This paper provides an overview of options to assess mitigation commitments before Paris and beyond. This includes a review of current activities to assess individual INDCs as well as a discussion of some of the attributes and requirements such assessment needs to fulfil. The paper goes on to explore options of how the assessment could be carried out and linked to the UNFCCC process, followed by a discussion of methodological approaches to assess the ambition of mitigation contributions. In conclusion, it provides some recommendations on a feasible and realistic way forward drawing out...

A highly efficient use of energy is thus fundamental to limit GHG emissions. Yet, energy efficiency receives much less attention than the decarbonization of the energy supply. This study indicates that scenarios with higher energy efficiency mostly show lower abatement costs. This was the result of evaluating the large number of existing scenarios that comply with the internationally agreed 2°C target until 2050. The societal costs of decarbonization in these scenarios vary strongly and a detailed assessment of the potential cost reductions due to EE is lacking. In order to close this gap...

This report offers deliberations on what a “fair share” for emissions in 2025 and 2030 could be. It shows, for a selection of ten countries, how their respective INDCs perform if related to different fair share approaches and effort sharing models. These assessments also take into account national mitigation potential and costs and the wider context of socio-­‐economic devel-­‐opment of the countries. Finally, current policies and politics of each country are included in the assessments. Authors: Andrzej Ancygier, Jasmin Cantzler, Hanna Fekete, Markus Hagemann, Niklas Höhne, Daniel Kandy...

Many “non -state actors” - e.g. regions, cities, companies and whole sectors - have committed to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These activities become increasingly important next to nationally driven actions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The exact impact of these efforts on current and future emissions is unknown and under-researched. Mitigation activities of regions, cities and companies that are independent of national action are currently not comprehensively reflected in the projection of greenhouse gas emissions of Germany, which...

This article assesses Japan’s carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated Budget.

Implementing good practice policies could hold warming close to 2°C The report The impact of good practice policies on regional and global greenhouse gas emissions by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis looks at the impact of “good practice” emission reduction policies in nine different areas globally and across six countries: China, Brazil, India, the US, Russia and Japan. These include renewable energy, a variety of energy efficiency standards (buildings, car fuel efficiency, appliances and...

The international carbon market is characterised by an activity gap between existing and future market-based mechanisms. Project-based carbon market mechanisms - such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) - no longer provide sufficient incentives for the initiation of greenhouse gas mitigation activities in developing countries. At the same time, procedures and modalities for new mechanisms are not yet defined. This transition period creates substantial challenges to maintain the expertise of various stakeholder groups, to test new mechanism approaches in practice and to support the final...

This report elaborated by PBL, NewClimate Institute, IIASA and Ecofys provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of seven major emitting countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, and the United States) out to 2030, taking into account the emissions trajectories based on current and selected enhanced policies. Earlier studies have explored the extent to which major economies are on track to achieve their 2020 pledges under the Cancun Agreements. This report extends these analyses for seven selected countries in several ways. First, the effect of planned...

Niklas Höhne and Hanna Fekete are authors of this year’s UNEP Emissions Gap Report. It informs governments and the wider community on how far the response to climate change has progressed over the past 12 months, and thus how far the world is currently positioned to meet the internationally agreed 2˚C limit to global warming. The fifth Emissions Gap Report goes beyond an analysis of scientific reality and the current level of ambition of nations by proposing concrete solutions on how the ambitions gap could be closed.

NewClimate Institute staff prepared the process guidance paper entitled ‘Process guidance for Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)’ for the International Partnership on Mitigation and MRV. This process guidance paper is based on early experiences of some countries and the international debate on INDCs and seeks to assist country governments in the preparation of their INDCs. The Conference of the Parties (COP 19) in Warsaw decided to “initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their intended nationally determined contributions” so that they can be submitted well in advance...

Many of the major greenhouse gas emitting countries have planned and/or implemented domestic mitigation policies, such as carbon taxes, feed-in tariffs, or standards. This study analyses whether the most effective national climate and energy policies are sufficient to stay on track for meeting the emission reduction proposals (pledges) that countries made for 2020. The analysis shows that domestic policies of India, China and Russia are projected to lead to lower emission levels than the pledged levels. Australia's and the EU's nationally legally binding policy framework is likely to deliver...