After weakening its updated NDC, removing its 2030 target altogether, and with its pledge to markedly increase fossil fuel production and consequentially increase methane emissions, COP29 host Azerbaijan has earned a "Critically Insufficient" rating from the Climate Action Tracker, in an analysis released today.

Azerbaijan's emissions are projected to continue rising by about 20% through to 2030, and it has no commitment to a net zero target.

Azerbaijan is among a tiny group of countries that has weakened its climate target (NDC), contradicting the Paris Agreement’s requirement that each NDC will be more ambitious than its predecessor. 

The country is doubling down on fossil fuel extraction, planning to increase fossil gas extraction by more than 30% over the coming decade.  Azerbaijan's biggest fossil gas customer is the European Union.

Azerbaijan's energy-related methane emissions are also increasing quickly; they're  already  about 6% above 1990 levels. (see IEA event Tuesday)

While the government has undertaken a recent push towards developing renewable energy, the primary purpose of this move is to free up domestic use of fossil gas, allowing for increased gas exports to Europe. It's also investing in a huge new gas pipeline and has recently signed deals with international energy companies British Petroleum and TotalEnergies.

"Azerbaijan does not include a transition away from fossil fuels in its NDC or in the COP29 agenda. This is not the kind of leadership we need in this crucial time of climate action as the world is increasingly being hit by catastrophic, climate-fuelled weather events," said Ana Missirliu from CAT partner organisation NewClimate Institute.

"While Azerbaijan has a huge renewable resource, one that it could be deployed to create green hydrogen to export to the European Union, Europe's hunger for fossil gas appears to be running the show. The EU could look at how it could fund an Azerbaijani transition to a low carbon economy," said Bill Hare, CEO of CAT partner organisation Climate Analytics.

The CAT's recommendations for Azerbaijan include:

• Substantially upgrade its policies to reduce emissions by 2030 instead of the current policies that are allowing emissions to sharply increase; 
• Set significantly stronger, and NDC  targets with substantial emissions reductions  for both 2030 and 2035;
• Prioritise developing renewable energy rather than the current mitigation activities that focus on reducing emissions from oil and gas production;
• develop a long-term strategy to transition away from fossil fuels, both for domestic power production and for export.  This would include a net zero target.

The CAT's final recommendation is for the European Union to reduce its own demand for fossil gas, and instead of importing Azerbaijani gas, to support countries like Azerbaijan to transition to a low carbon economy.

The CAT is publishing this Azerbaijan analysis ahead of a New York Climate Week event being held by the "Troika" of Azerbaijan, United Arab Emirates (see CAT analysis April 2024) and Brazil (see CAT analysis September 2024).  Please note that this analysis looks at Azerbaijan’s current climate policies and latest NDC (which was published in 2023) and the CAT may also assess any significant new policies announced before or at COP29.

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