Tracking climate mitigation efforts in 30 major emitters

Economy-wide projections and progress on key sectoral policies

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This report by NewClimate Institute, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and FTSE Russell tracks climate mitigation efforts in 30 countries and regions. Our analysis shows that emissions trends remain far from the goals of the Paris Agreement in the period post-2020. Emissions in the 30 economies as a group are projected to increase on average by approximately 0.4% per year between 2021 and 2030. However, almost two thirds of the countries analysed will accelerate their efforts in the 2020s. Sectors remain a key entry point to accelerate emissions reductions in the coming decade.


Emissions trends remain far from the goals of the Paris Agreement in the period post-2020

Emissions trends remain far from the goals of the Paris Agreement in the period post-2020. Global emissions should fall 7.6% each year up until 2030 to get on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Our projections show that emissions reductions under current policies remain woefully insufficient. Emissions in the 30 economies as a group are projected to increase on average by approximately 0.4% per year between 2021 and 2030 (Figure 1).
Almost two thirds of the countries analysed will accelerate their efforts in the 2020s; countries with increasing emissions are expected to increase them slower and countries with decreasing emissions are projected to decrease them faster. Together, these countries are projected to cover 63% of the group’s emissions in 2030.

Figure 1: Countries average emissions change rate per year in the 2010s compared to the projected change rate in the 2020s.

Our analysis shows that 2030 emissions in the large emitters are on track to stabilise but remain significantly above 2015 levels in several countries. Collectively, emissions under current policies in the group of 30 countries is expected to stay between a slight decrease of 1% to a moderate increase of 5% in comparison to 2015. This range is driven by the uncertainty in current policy projections, especially in fast growing economies. A large variation across countries is demonstrated but progress in some economies, like the EU, Japan, South Africa and the UK, is outweighed by increase in emissions elsewhere.


Contact for further information: Leonardo Nascimento, Takeshi Kuramochi