Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries

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This new report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas emissions in 25 major emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) and nationally determined contributions (NDCs).


Key findings of the current study:

  • The degree to which countries/regions are likely to achieve their 2030 targets under current policies was found to vary: of those considered in this report,
    • Brazil, Chile, China, India, the Russian Federation, Turkey and Ukraine are likely to – or are roughly on track to – (over) achieve their self-chosen (unconditional) 2030 targets with currently implemented policies.
    • Argentina, Australia, Canada, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, the EU, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Morocco, Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, the Philippines and the United States require additional measures to achieve their 2025/2030 targets.
  • Currently implemented policies are projected to influence GHG emissions but do not stop emissions from increasing until 2030 (above 2010 levels) in Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Morocco, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey, mainly due to their projected high economic growth. GHG emissions in Brazil, Canada, South Korea, the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United States would remain stable at approximately current levels with the currently implemented policies. In Colombia, Japan and the EU, GHG emissions are projected to decrease further under current policies.

This report, supported by the European Commission, Directorate General Climate Action (DG CLIMA), builds upon our earlier studies (den Elzen et al., 2015, Fekete et al., 2015), which provided an overview of projected greenhouse gas emissions of 13 major emitting countries out to 2030.

Contacts for further information

NewClimate Institute: Takeshi Kuramochi, Niklas Höhne

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency: Michel den Elzen