Climate Action Tracker Update: China, US and EU post-2020 plans reduce projected warming

CAT

08 December 2014

The latest update to the Climate Action Tracker has been released, showing that the current level of global climate change mitigation ambition reduces the projected warming trajectory to +2.9° C – 3.1° C. It is the first time since 2009 that the Climate Action Tracker has calculated a discernibly lower temperature increase than previously estimated, due to proposed post-2020 actions.

Climate Action Tracker update
The latest update shows the effect of recently announced pledges to be a warming increase of 2.9° C – 3.1° C, whilst projections from current policies remain significantly above this. The chart shows that the pledge trajectory diverges significantly from least-cost +2° C and +1.5° C pathways.

The CAT update incorporates the recently announced pledges of China, the United States and the European Union, which are more ambitious than previous commitments.

Although the recent pledges are still substantially short of achieving the universally-agreed goal of keeping the warming increase below 2° C above pre-industrial levels, the developments represent an important first step in increasing momentum for ambition raising and open the way for further improvements in the run-up towards the global agreement to be adopted in Paris in 2015.

Read the full briefing

Bill Hare (Climate Analytics), Niklas Höhne (NewClimate Institute) and Louise Jeffery (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research) presented the CAT update at a press conference at COP20 in Lima on 8th December 2014.

Watch the press release

The Climate Action Tracker assesses government pledges and actions against those needed to limit warming below a 2°C increase above pre-industrial levels, and against the goal of bringing warming below 1.5°C by 2100. In this update, the Climate Action Tracker has assessed multiple countries and we have made them available on the CAT website.