International environmental law principles are used to assess indicators of fair share emissions reductions and narrow the range of what is considered a fair share for individual countries. Main Findings: This article tests fairness justifications offered in 168 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the 2015 Paris Agreement against the touchstone of principles of international environmental law. It finds that while many NDCs refer to elements and indicators that are backed by principles of international law in determining fair shares (sustainable development, special circumstances...

As part of the Paris Agreement, countries are mandated to update and enhance their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years — increasing their ambition with every cycle. The first round of NDCs were submitted starting in 2015 as intended nationally determined contributions and countries have submitted or are finalizing their updates for the new cycle in 2020/2021. The purpose of this report was to develop a methodology to systematically assess the design of NDCs and to apply it to 20 NDCs. Main findings: While there are several tools that analyze NDCs, they are comprehensive...

This report is the third and the latest edition of the series since 2018 that take stock of climate action by cities, regions and businesses and their global aggregate impact on greenhouse gas emissions. The 2021 edition focuses on the progress of non-state and subnational actors toward their emissions reduction targets. Main findings: In this report, we focus on subnational and non-state action in ten major emitting economies: Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union (EU-27) plus the United Kingdom (UK), India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, and the United States (US). We find that...

This study published in the "Environmental Science & Policy" journal assesses if nine key non-G20 countries meet 2030 GHG targets with existing policies. Main Findings: This study compares greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections in 2030 under current policies and those under 2030 mitigation targets for nine key non-G20 countries, that collectively account for about 5 % of global total emissions today. These include the four largest non-G20 fossil CO 2 emitting Parties to the UN climate convention pre-Paris Agreement (Iran, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine) and one of the largest land-use...

The Paris Agreement established a Global Stocktake process as a key safeguard mechanism to facilitate enhancement of the NDCs toward meeting the collective goals of the Agreement. This paper examines the questions of what an effective Global Stocktake process would look like, and what information and data are needed to support it. Main findings: We identify four functions that an effective Global Stocktake should fulfil; acting as a pacemaker of policy processes, ensuring accountability of countries actions, driving enhanced ambition in subsequent NDC cycles, and providing guidance and signal...

In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) estimates global warming by 2100 to be at an all-time low of 2.4°C. Due to recent climate action announcements at President Biden’s Leaders Summit on Climate, together with those announced since September 2020, have improved the CAT’s global warming estimate by 0.2°C. This emissions gap needs to be closed with further NDC target updates this year and targets have yet to be supported by ambitious policies. Leaders’ Summit on Climate creates new momentum on climate action Climate action announcements at US President Biden’s Leaders Summit on...

This report discusses inputs for countries to set their mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement, so that those targets are in line with long-term temperature limit. It reconciles different approaches and suggests closing the disparity of the results from the equity and cost-effectiveness approaches through international support. Further, it analyses spill-over effect of domestic action and provides inputs to the discussion around the long-term mitigation goal of the European Union. Key Findings: The adoption of the Paris Agreement with the long-term goal of reducing temperature increase...

This paper discusses the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis on the energy sector and frames it in the broader perspective of the climate crisis and development aspirations. We present practical challenges and responses observed in several emerging economies and developing countries, and discuss how key patterns in those countries are relevant for the post-COVID energy transition. We conclude by offering three considerations on how governments can strengthen their NDC update and signal the highest possible climate ambition for the energy sector. Key Findings: The effects of the COVID-19...

This scientific article in ‘Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews’ looks at climate change mitigation policies in five major emitting economies: China, the European Union, India, Japan and the United States. It analyses their performance in terms of energy system and greenhouse gas emissions indicators. The review centres on the sectors of electricity generation, passenger vehicles, freight transport, forestry, industry, buildings, agriculture, and oil and gas production. The article further presents an explorative emissions scenario developed under the assumption that all countries will...

This study aims to obtain enhanced understanding of subnational (e.g. cities and subnational regions) and non-state (e.g. companies) actors’ action on GHG emissions reductions in the European Union (EU). Specifically, we present an overview of findings in the recent literature on (i) landscape of sub/non-state action, (ii) interactions between EU policy making and sub/non-state actors, (iii) potential GHG emissions reductions additional to the reductions expected under national policies, and (iv) progress towards their own short- to mid-term targets and long-term goals. This report focuses on...

This is the eleventh edition of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report. It assesses the gap between estimated future global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions if countries implement their climate mitigation pledges and the global emission levels from least-cost pathways that are aligned with achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” has become known as the ‘emissions gap’. The report also examines two areas that are highly relevant for bridging the gap and which have become even...

Developed by Germanwatch , NewClimate Institute and CAN , the index rates 57 greenhouse emitters globally since 2005. Foreword The CCPI analyzes and compares climate protection across 57 countries (plus EU as a whole) with the highest emissions. Together these countries account for 90 percent of global emissions. The index aims to enhance transparency in international climate politics and enable comparison of mitigation efforts and progress made by individual countries. Main findings: Climate Change Performance Index 2021: Still no country good enough; EU stands at a crossroads The Climate...

The 2020 NDC Update report discusses countries’ preparedness to ratchet up ambition in the first NDC update cycle amidst a global health crisis. Based on our survey of 98 policy makers and experts involved in NDC planning and implementation from 83 countries, we discuss the progress of NDC implementation since 2015, expectations for the NDC update cycle, and progress on the development of Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies (LTSs). We analyse the potential impact of COVID-19 on climate planning and climate action with regards to the future of clean technologies, the...

Esta guía ofrece recomendaciones a los tomadores de decisiones sobre cómo abordar la elaboración de una LTS o estrategia a largo plazo para un desarrollo bajo en emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, dadas las circunstancias singulares de cada país en 2020, y de las futuras revisiones de la misma. Resumen para Tomadores de Decisiones: Contexto En el marco del Acuerdo de París, las 198 Partes de la CMNUCC se comprometieron colectivamente a mantener el aumento de la temperatura media mundial muy por debajo de 2°C con respecto a los niveles preindustriales y perseguir esfuerzos para limitar...

The recent wave of net zero targets has put the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C within striking distance. In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has calculated that global warming by 2100 could be as low as 2.1°C as a result of all the net zero pledges announced as of November 2020. Included in our new modelling is the announcement by China in September 2020 that it intends to reach carbon neutrality before 2060, which reduces the CAT end of century warming estimate by 0.2 to 0.3°C alone. Assuming carbon neutrality in the USA by 2050, as proposed by President-Elect Biden, would reduce...

This report analyses the momentum of targets for net-zero emissions across companies, cities and regions worldwide. We seek to unravel the ambiguity of net-zero targets to better enable the identification of truly ambitious actors and enhance support towards them. We offer recommendations for increasing target transparency with the aim of achieving greater accountability and ambition. Main Findings: 1. Net zero momentum is accelerating: The number of net-zero pledges from cities regions and companies has roughly doubled in less than a year since late 2019 As of October 2020, actors with net...

The rising importance of cities, states and regions, firms, investors, and other subnational and non-state actors in global and national responses to climate change raises a critical question: to what extent does this climate action deliver results? This article published in Climate Policy journal introduces a conceptual framework that researchers and practitioners can use as a template to assess the progress, implementation, and impact of climate action by sub- and non-state actors. Main Findings: The proposed framework is used to review existing studies that track progress, implementation...

This report presents an overview of recently adopted climate policies, climate-relevant responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and a state of play of NDC and LTS submissions in 25 countries and regions. The policy information compiled by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an update of a previous report published in June 2019 , and supplements the December 2019 report on the projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under currently implemented policies and mitigation commitments. Main Findings...

In this briefing, the Climate Action Tracker examines the COVID-19 recovery packages of five major emitters – China, EU27, India, South Korea and the USA; we present the global temperature update, taking into account the economic impact of COVID-19; and we share key insights from the updated assessments for 13 of the 36 countries assessed by the Climate Action Tracker, including projections of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on 2020 emissions. This briefing provides a directional analysis as to what we could expect in terms of emissions developments in the future, considering that COVID-19...