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Browse publications
Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets?
Publication date 17 Dec 2018

This study compares projected GHG emissions in the G20 economies under current climate policies to those under the GHG targets outlined in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). It is based on an assessment of official governmental estimates and independent national and global studies. Findings: Highlights: Almost all G20 members are making progress in implementing climate policies. Eight G20 members are on track to meet their unconditional NDC targets. The other G20 members require enhanced policies to achieve their NDC targets. For many G20 members emissions continue to increase...

Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries – Analysis of current climate policies and mitigation commitments: 2018 update
Publication date 05 Dec 2018

This report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 25 major emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The report concludes that 16 out of the 25 countries and regions analysed are not on track to achieve the NDC targets they have set for themselves. This report updates the 2017 report...

The Emissions Gap Report 2018: A UN Environment Synthesis Report
Publication date 27 Nov 2018

This is the 9th edition of the UN Environment Emissions Gap Report. It assesses the latest scientific studies on current and estimated future greenhouse gas emissions and compares these with the emission levels permissible for the world to progress on a least-cost pathway to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” is known as the ‘emissions gap’. As in previous years, the report explores some of the most important options available for countries to bridge the gap. NewClimate Institute staff ( Frederic Hans , Niklas...

Global climate action from cities, regions and businesses
Publication date 30 Aug 2018

Since the Paris Climate Agreement solidified an “all hands on deck” approach to climate change, cities, regions and businesses have become key contributors to mitigation, adaptation and finance efforts. These actors are pledging a range of actions, from directly reducing their own greenhouse gas emissions footprints, to building capacity for climate adaptation and resilience to providing private finance. This report is the most comprehensive assessment of these non-state actor commitments to reduce greenhouse gases to date. The report focuses on 9 high-emitting countries – Brazil, China, India...

Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals
Publication date 10 Jul 2018

This article shows how a strengthening of existing plans by a global roll-out of successful, regional sector policies can ease the implementation challenge of reaching the Paris climate goals. The novel element of it is to integrate such detailed policy packages until 2030 into pathways that reach long-term targets until 2100 using an integrated assessment modelling framework. The study is only a first step in connecting the analysis of mitigation pathways towards the Paris climate goals with an assessment of the implementability of near to medium term (2020–2050) climate action that would be...

Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario
Publication date 14 Jun 2018

This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be...

The EU can increase its climate targets to be in line with a global 1.5°C target
Publication date 04 May 2018

This project analyses best practice policies across Europe and how far extending them to all EU member states could support EU Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and energy targets. Key messages: The study finds that the EU can go much further than its current commitments in terms of GHG reductions: it has the potential to reach -55% to -62% below 1990 by 2030, consistent with the Paris commitment of staying “well below 2°C, pursuing 1.5°C”. The key to realize these reductions is to apply EU-wide the best practice policies identified in various Member States including The Netherlands, Denmark, UK, Germany...

Update: GHG mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries - an overview of recently adopted policies
Publication date 30 Apr 2018

NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and IIASA present an overview of on climate and energy policies in 25 major emitting countries and regions that have been adopted since July 2017. The policy information compiled by in this document supplements the earlier 2017 update report on the projected greenhouse gas emissions under currently implemented policies and mitigation commitments in 25 countries and regions. Not only the qualitative descriptions of policies but also their possible implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections in 2030 are provided...

Ten key short-term sectoral benchmarks to limit warming to 1.5°C
Publication date 06 Dec 2017

This article identifies and quantifies the 10 most important benchmarks for climate action to be taken by 2020 – 2025 to keep the window open for a 1.5°C-consistent GHG emission pathway. Abstract We conducted a comprehensive review of existing emissions scenarios, scanned all sectors and the respective necessary transitions, and distilled the most important short-term benchmarks for action in line with the long-term perspective of the required global low-carbon transition. Owing to the limited carbon budget, combined with the inertia of existing systems, global energy economic models find only...

Countries start to explain how their climate contributions are fair: more rigour needed
Publication date 07 Nov 2017

In the lead-up to the Paris Agreement, every country was invited to submit an intended nationally determined contribution (INDC), and indicate how it is fair. We analyse how countries have explained the equity of mitigation and adaptation in 163 INDCs, providing a bottom-up analysis of equity to complement a literature that has focused on top-down allocations. While no single indicator of equity was used by all INDCs, a menu of quantified indicators or tiered approaches could provide bounded flexibility across different national circumstances. The most common equity indicator used in...

The Emissions Gap Report 2017: A UN Environment Synthesis Report
Publication date 01 Nov 2017

The goal of the Paris Agreement on climate change, as agreed at the Conference of the Parties in 2015, is to keep global temperature rise this century to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It also calls for efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The UN Environment Emissions Gap Report 2017 presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. What’s new in this year’s report? This year...

Greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for major emitting countries - 2017
Publication date 01 Nov 2017

This new report by NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas emissions in 25 major emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on current policies and the implementation of intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) and nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The study concludes that 16 out of the 25 countries and regions analysed are not on track to achieve the NDC targets they have set...

States, cities and businesses leading the way: a first look at decentralized climate commitments in the US
Publication date 13 Sep 2017

Authored by NewClimate Institute and The Climate Group and powered by CDP data , ‘ States, cities and businesses leading the way: a first look at decentralized climate commitments in the US ’ shows that the US can already meet half of its climate commitments under the Paris Agreement by 2025, if the 342 commitments included in the analysis are implemented. This report provides the first steps in helping to quantify the contribution of states, cities and business to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions. As more and more commitments emerge, further analysis will be undertaken within the Initiative...

Assessing the ambition of post-2020 climate targets: a comprehensive framework
Publication date 30 Mar 2017

One of the most fundamental questions surrounding the new Paris Agreement is whether countries’ proposals to reduce GHG emissions after 2020 are equally ambitious, considering differences in circumstances between countries. We review a variety of approaches to assess the ambition of the GHG emission reduction proposals by countries. The approaches are applied illustratively to the mitigation part of the post-2020 climate proposals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) by China, the EU, and the US. The analysis reveals several clear trends, even though the results differ per individual...

Ten steps in ten years toward the 1.5˚C warming limit – Climate Action Tracker
Publication date 16 Nov 2016

The Climate Action Tracker today spelt out ten important, short-term steps that key sectors need to take to help the world achieve the Paris Agreement’s 1.5˚C limit: All key sectors—energy generation, road transport, buildings, industry, forestry and land use, and commercial agriculture—have to begin major efforts to cut emissions by, latest, 2020. By 2025 they should have accelerated these efforts in order to reach globally aggregated zero carbon dioxide emissions by mid-century, and zero greenhouse gas emissions overall roughly in the 2060s. The CAT scientists warned that in today’s carbon...

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