The impact of subnational and non-state climate action in the Trump era

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This briefing presents the results of a preliminary analysis into United States’ subnational and non-state action and its impact on national greenhouse gas emissions, if fully implemented. The analysis covers commitments from individual actors, which set quantitative mitigation targets and for which historical emissions data are available.


We show that the currently recorded individual commitments by subnational and non-state actors get the U.S. around halfway to achieving the higher end of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by 2025. Under the “Current reported subnational and non-state commitments” scenario, GHG emissions reduces to 13% below 2005 level by 2025. This equals to about 480 MtCO2e/yr reduction from the “Current administration policies” scenario.

We invite analysts to provide comments to this draft for review by 18 August 2017 by emailing and