Policy Brief: Enhanced policy scenarios for major emitting countries

Policy Brief – April 2015

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This report elaborated by PBL, NewClimate Institute, IIASA and Ecofys provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of seven major emitting countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, and the United States) out to 2030, taking into account the emissions trajectories based on current and selected enhanced policies. Earlier studies have explored the extent to which major economies are on track to achieve their 2020 pledges under the Cancun Agreements. This report extends these analyses for seven selected countries in several ways.

First, the effect of planned policies, next to current ones, is analysed. Current and planned policies are subject to change, so this report represents the current state of affairs. Secondly, we analyse the impact of a selection of enhanced mitigation actions that are related to current national priorities. Thirdly, we project the impact of these current, planned, and enhanced policies up to 2030. Finally, we estimate how much the aggregated reduction of all enhanced policies could deliver in narrowing the gap between the global emission levels in 2025 and 2030 consistent with meeting the climate target of 2°C, and levels expected in that year based on current emission trajectories.